Showing posts with label Eurozone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eurozone. Show all posts

2011/10/27

Eurozone gets ECB boost, summit deal uncertain (Reuters)

BRUSSELS/ROME (Reuters) – The incoming head of the European Central Bank threw the euro zone a lifeline hours before a crucial summit on Wednesday which looked set to fall short of a definitive plan to tackle the bloc's debt crisis.

Mario Draghi signaled the ECB would go on buying troubled states' bonds as leaders of the 17-nation single currency area struggled to agree a convincing set of measures.

"The Eurosystem (of central banks) is determined, with its non-conventional measures, to prevent malfunctioning in the money and financial markets creating an obstacle to monetary transmission," he said in typically coded ECB language in a speech text released in Rome.

Draghi, who will succeed Jean-Claude Trichet on November 1, made clear that measures could only be a temporary expedient and said it was up to governments to tackle the roots of the debt crisis that began in Greece two years ago.

However, his statement appeared to rebuff pressure from Germany's powerful Bundesbank for the ECB to end the bond-buying program which prompted the resignation of the two most senior German ECB policymakers this year.

The second euro zone summit in four days, due to start at 1730 GMT, seems unlikely to produce a detailed masterplan despite Franco-German assurances that a "comprehensive solution" to two years of debt turmoil would be found.

Bank of Canada chief Mark Carney said he had received guidance that "that there will need to be subsequent meetings to provide more detail."

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte urged decisive action now.

"We need a real solution, we won't buy anything with mediocre compromises," he told reporters upon his arrival in Brussels. "We are in this job to take decisions. It's not easy, but it really has to happen."

Greek debt needed to be made sustainable, the bloc's rescue fund must be made strong enough to convince markets and Europe's banks had to be shepherded through "this difficult phase," Rutte said.

The leaders may agree on broad outlines but leave crucial details, including the numbers on a Greek debt write-down and on funds available for financial fire-fighting, for later negotiation among finance ministers.

A European Commission spokesman said there would not be detailed numbers on all aspects of the political agreement.

While there is consensus on the need for European banks to raise around 110 billion euros ($150 billion) in extra capital to withstand a potential Greek debt default and wider financial contagion, two other critical parts of the plan remain unclear.

Governments and banks are still haggling over the scale of write-offs private bondholders will have to take on their Greek debt holdings, sources familiar with the negotiations said.

"There will be give and take with the banks until the last minute," a Greek government source involved in the Brussels negotiations said. "As far as now, the talks are going on."

Uncertainties also remain around complex plans to scale up the region's 440 billion euro ($600 billion) bailout fund, known as the European Financial Stability Facility, without allowing it to draw on the ECB.

Investors stayed cautious, with the euro surrendering earlier gains and inching higher against the dollar and European shares flat on the day.

50 PERCENT "HAIRCUT?"

One proposal set to be adopted involves creating a special purpose investment vehicle (SPIV) to tap foreign sovereign and private investors, such as Chinese and Middle Eastern wealth funds, to buy bonds of troubled euro zone countries.

The EFSF said its chief, Klaus Regling, would visit China to meet with investors on Friday.

But Chinese and European officials said there was no word yet on whether Beijing, which holds AAA-rated EFSF bonds and an estimated 600 billion euros in euro-denominated debt, would also put money into the SPIV.

The other proposed method for scaling up the EFSF involves using it to offer partial guarantees to purchasers of new euro zone debt. The two options may be used in combination.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel won a parliamentary vote of support for strengthening the rescue fund after warning in a dramatic speech that Europe was facing its most difficult situation since the end of World War Two.

"If the euro fails, then Europe fails," she declared, saying there was no certainty that the continent would then enjoy another 60 years of peace.

Merkel earlier told parliament that private bondholders would have to take a substantial write-down so that Greece's debt could be reduced to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020 from 160 percent this year.

Experts say that implies a 50 percent "haircut" for private investors, which Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos was reported to have told Greek banks was the most likely outcome.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the chairman of euro zone finance ministers, forecast an eventual deal on a 50 percent write-off but officials said it might not be sealed on Wednesday and the banks wanted a menu of options for the bond swap rather than a single solution.

European leaders' pattern of responding too little, too late has spawned a wider economic and political crisis that threatens to undermine the euro single currency and the European Union project.

EU sources said detailed figures may not materialize until November 7-8, when EU and euro zone finance ministers hold their next regular meeting.

LETTER OF INTENT

Also weighing on the summit was deep concern about Italy, which is now in the bond market firing line.

Rome's inability to deliver a substantive plan for reforming its pensions system has raised doubts about Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's seriousness in tackling a crisis that threatens the euro zone's third largest economy.

Berlusconi was bringing to Brussels a "letter of intent" to his European partners on long awaited reforms, aides said, after his government nearly collapsed on Tuesday over their demands that Rome fulfill a pledge to raise the retirement age.

The letter was expected to contain only vague promises of economic reform rather than the firm undertakings sought by exasperated EU leaders in return for support for Italy's bonds.

Italy has the euro zone's largest sovereign bond market, with a public debt of 1.8 trillion euros, 120 percent of GDP. If it went the same way as Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the rescue fund does not have enough money to bail Rome out.

Draghi's statement appeared to supersede a dispute between Germany and France over how the ECB, the ultimate defender of the euro, should be involved in trying to resolve the crisis.

Paris had wanted the summit to endorse a continuation of the ECB's "non-standard measures" as long as Europe faces exceptional circumstances.

Merkel said Germany opposed a line in the draft summit conclusions urging the ECB to continue these measures. A euro zone source said the phrase would be dropped.

(Additional reporting by Annika Breidthardt and Sarah Marsh in Berlin, Daniel Flynn and Harry Papachristou in Athens, Barry Moody in Rome; Writing by Luke Baker and Mike Peacock; editing by Janet McBride)


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2011/07/11

Eurozone mulls Greek options, fears spread to Italy (Reuters)

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – EU finance officials will discuss a range of options for Greece's intractable debt crisis on Monday, galvanized by the growing threat of contagion to Italy, the euro zone's third-largest economy.

A senior European Union source told Reuters the Eurogroup of 17 euro zone finance ministers meeting later would discuss the possibility of buying back Greek debt or the private sector swapping holdings for longer-dated maturities.

If so, it suggests a French plan that would have involved private sector creditors rolling over around 70 percent of their Greek debt into 30-year bonds and other AAA-rated securities is losing favor and other options are back under the microscope.

Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and Finland are determined that banks, insurers and other private holders of Greek government bonds should bear a chunk of the costs of a second Greek bailout, which is expected to total 110 billion euros.

But after weeks of negotiations with bankers, there has been next to no progress on agreeing a formula acceptable to all sides.

As the French plan has faltered, Berlin has revived a proposal to swap Greek bonds for longer-dated debt that would extend maturities by seven years. Proposals to buy back Greek bonds and retire them have also been floated.

"We need to find a way to have some guidelines today on the private sector involvement and the solution for Greece," Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders told reporters. "That's the real issue today, I'm sure."

The senior EU source said the Eurogroup would task technical groups with working on the two options -- bond buybacks and a debt rollover.

"There is a strong possibility that a new Eurogroup meeting will be called at the end of July, to sign off on the solutions," the source said.

Both those schemes would likely be regarded by ratings agencies as a default, or at best a selective default, which could have profound repercussions for global financial markets.

The European Central Bank insists it will not accept anything that is termed a default, a position Germany also holds even if some policymakers may be edging closer to effectively condoning a default to achieve a write-down in the value of Greek debt to make its debt mountain more sustainable.

"We do pursue a voluntary basis but it has to be substantial private sector involvement. That's our commitment and also our parliament that demands it," Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees De Jager said.

In a buy-back, the bloc's European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) bailout fund might buy Greek bonds from the market, or lend Greece money to do so. Officials say that would require changes to the EFSF's rules which would need the backing of national parliaments -- a further potential obstacle.

ITALY FOCUSING MINDS

Policymakers have been seized with a new sense of urgency after Italy came under market attack last week, fearing any further delay in putting together a second Greek package could poison investor confidence in weak economies around the region.

After talking by phone to Italy's Silvio Berlusconi, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Rome needed to demonstrate it was undertaking the budget reforms needed to restore confidence and she was confident that it would do so.

Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the European Council, met ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and Jean-Claude Juncker, the chairman of the Eurogroup, for talks in Brussels ahead of the euro zone finance ministers' gathering.

Van Rompuy's spokesman described the meeting, which European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and EU economic and monetary affairs commissioner Olli Rehn also attended, as a "coordination, not a crisis meeting."

He said Italy was not on the agenda but senior EU sources said it would be impossible not to discuss it following a large sell-off in bonds and stocks that the Italian media have dubbed "black Friday."

The cost of insuring Italian debt against default jumped to a record high on Monday, the 10-year yield spread over German debt widened to a euro-era high of 268 basis points and bond yields neared the 5.5-5.7 percent area which bankers say will start putting heavy pressure on Italy's finances.

The sell-off has increased fears that Italy, with the highest sovereign debt ratio relative to GDP in the euro zone after Greece, could be next to get dragged into crisis. If that came to pass, the euro zone's existing rescue mechanism, the EFSF, would have insufficient funds to help.

Austria's Finance Minister Markia Fekter said ministers wanted to quiz Italy about how it was handling the situation.

"We have a Eurogroup meeting today and tomorrow Ecofin. We will (discuss) the IMF decisions and we will also have questions for the Italian minister there," she told reporters.

The market pressure is due in part to Italy's high sovereign debt and sluggish economy, but also due to concern that Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi may be trying to push out his long-time finance minister, Giulio Tremonti, who has promoted deep spending cuts to control the budget deficit.

"We can't go on for many more days like Friday," a senior ECB official told Reuters. "We're very worried about Italy."

German newspaper Die Welt quoted an unnamed ECB source as saying the EFSF may have to be doubled in size to 1.5 trillion euros if it is to be capable of coming to the aid of Italy.

(Additional reporting by John O'Donnell in Brussels, Silvia Westall in Vienna, Stephen Brown in Berlin and Milan/Rome bureaus, writing/editing by Mike Peacock)


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