GOP isn't sold on Romney, seeking other options (AP)

WASHINGTON – If polls show one thing with certainty, it's that Republicans aren't sold on Mitt Romney and they've been looking for other presidential candidates.

At least eight other Republicans have seen their standings soar in GOP primary surveys since the beginning of the year.

Sarah Palin, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani didn't run. Nor did Donald Trump. And among those who actually got in the race, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and now, Herman Cain all have sat near_ or at — the top of national polls, at least briefly.

The indecisiveness is a reflection on Romney, who hasn't been able to lock up the GOP's support even though he's essentially been running for president since losing his 2008 bid.

Many Republicans know him. They just don't love him.

A recent Associated Press-GfK poll found that 64 percent of conservative Republicans viewed Romney favorably but only 20 percent had deeply positive opinions about him.

"The GOP is in a rebellious and ultraconservative mood," said Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center. "And," he added, "Mitt Romney is not rebellious."

Or, for that matter, ultraconservative.

Consider that in a Tuesday debate, Romney defended the 2008-2009 Wall Street bailout that irks the tea party and declared that he could work with "good" Democrats. He also gave one of his most spirited defenses of his health care initiative when he was Massachusetts governor, legislation that President Barack Obama has called a partial blueprint for his own national overhaul.

While those positions may make him appealing to a wider swath of Americans in next fall's election, they greatly disturb conservatives who dominate the GOP primary electorate.

And that helps explain why some Republicans have been itching for someone else.

Generally, Republicans say that Romney has more experience and a better chance to beat Obama next fall than anyone else in the field. But those on the party's right flank doubt whether he — more so than other candidates — shares their values.

Conservatives in the potential Republican electorate were deeply divided on that question in a CBS News/New York Times poll early this month. Only 12 percent chose Romney, while nearly half picked Cain (20 percent), Bachmann (18 percent) or Perry (11 percent).

Such divisions have been the most defining factor of the race so far.

It's not just Romney who has failed to solidify his support with the Republican primary electorate. None of the other candidates who have risen in polls has been able to, either.

Until now, Republicans have been bouncing from candidate to candidate — and even some noncandidates — in search of the perfect nominee.

But with the GOP field set and no more people flirting with bids, it's entirely possible that Republicans will rally behind one candidate — perhaps even Romney — between now and January when the first votes are cast.

Indeed, a host of Republicans — 76 percent in a recent CBS-New York Times poll — said it was too early to say who they would support when voting begins in January. Just 19 percent said they had firmly chosen a candidate.

The volatile race is taking place in a dramatically different Republican Party than the one that nominated John McCain — and for much of the 2008 race strongly favored the thrice-married Giuliani.

The GOP fell out of public favor following McCain's loss to Obama. It then rebounded with the growth of the tea party movement, which helped Republicans win control of the House and boost its ranks in the Senate last year.

Today's Republican Party is more conservative.

"The most visible shift in the political landscape since ... 2005 is the emergence of a single bloc of across-the-board conservatives," the Pew Center said earlier this year.

And those conservatives — at least at this point — seem reluctant to continue a trend that's been the hallmark of Republican presidential primaries in recent decades.

The Republican Party usually has chosen a nominee who has been the perceived next in line.

Ronald Reagan lost once before winning the 1980 nomination. George H.W. Bush got beat that year, became Reagan's vice president and won the GOP nod in 1988. Bob Dole lost twice before becoming the party favorite in 1996. And McCain made a strong run at the nomination in 2000 before clinching it eight years later.

This year, it's Romney who is making his second bid.

And, if history is a guide, he's the most likely to end up winning the nomination — even if the all-over-the-map polls don't show it.

___

Agiesta is deputy polling director for The Associated Press. Follow her at http://twitter.com/JennAgiesta

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Analysis: Perry may pose biggest threat to Romney (AP)

AMES, Iowa – The biggest rumblings in the Republican presidential campaign are coming from Austin, Texas — 1,000 miles from the leadoff caucus state where front-runner Mitt Romney and seven opponents squared off ahead of an important test vote this weekend.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry sent word that he would join the race, casting a shadow over the debate Thursday night and threatening to upend the race.

Back in Iowa, Romney emerged unscathed with his leader-of-the-pack status intact after two feisty hours; his two Minnesota rivals — Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty — sparred repeatedly as each sought advantage ahead of Saturday's Iowa straw poll.

Overall, the dynamics of the campaign did not change with a single debate. And they may not change when Saturday's straw poll results are announced.

But the race could well change in the coming days as Perry dives in.

The Texan may pose the biggest threat yet to Romney.

Conservatives who make up the core of the GOP primary base view Romney skeptically on cultural issues, and he hasn't been able to establish himself as the heavy favorite for the nomination even though he's spent months promoting his background as a businessman and claiming that he alone has the know-how to create jobs to pull the country out of a period of high unemployment, rampant foreclosures and tumultuous financial markets.

Democrats are already taking aim at Perry.

"His record will get scrutinized," David Axelrod, senior political adviser to President Barack Obama, said Friday. Axelrod suggested Perry was taking too much credit for Texas' relatively healthy economy and job creation.

"He's been the beneficiary down there of the boom in oil prices and increased military spending because of the wars," Axelrod said on CBS' "Early Show." "I don't think many people would attribute it to the leadership of the governor down there."

Perry could benefit from GOP suspicion about Romney.

The Republican establishment has a lackluster view of Romney's candidacy, leading deep-pocketed donors across the country to look for more candidates to draft into the race who could bridge the historical tension between the party's social and economic wings. They couldn't convince former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush to run. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie repeatedly refused, too. And Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels declined overtures as well.

Enter Perry.

He is credible on issues social conservatives care about and sent a strong message to evangelicals last weekend by hosting a national prayer rally in Houston that drew roughly 30,000 Christians. He also has overseen a period of job growth in his state, making Texas one of the few states in the country that have posted economic gains and giving him the opportunity to challenge Romney's pitch as the jobs candidate.

Iowa, with its strong base of evangelical voters, may be tailor-made for Perry. He was making his first trip to the state Sunday, a day after formally announcing his candidacy in South Carolina and New Hampshire — just as Iowa straw poll votes are being cast.

A caucus campaign by the Texan could force Romney to retool his strategy of downplaying the state — which he lost during his first run in 2008 after investing heavily — in favor of friendlier ground elsewhere.

"Perry hasn't shown up in the rodeo yet, but it looks like a Romney-Perry race," Republican strategist Jim Dyke said.

That may be a bit premature.

Perry is entering the race months after other candidates and Romney has a multimillion-dollar head start in fundraising.

Also, there still are at least five months before Iowa's precinct caucuses that kick off the winter-to-summer GOP nomination season, and there still are several unknowns, including whether former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin ends up running. She was making a last-minute visit to the Iowa State Fair for Friday, reviving talk of a potential candidacy on the eve of the straw poll at Iowa State University. The straw poll could winnow the GOP field and indicate which candidate has the strongest get-out-the-vote operation.

This is turning out to be the most consequential week yet in the 2012 Republican presidential nomination fight — but not because of anything that happened at the debate.

Romney largely kept his criticism on Obama and the incumbent Democrat's handling of the economy, an issue that has blossomed anew as the GOP's top campaign concern in the wake of a tumultuous week on Wall Street and continuing high unemployment.

"I understand how the economy works," Romney said during the debate, noting the lessons of both successes and failures as a venture capital firm chief executive officer. "Our president doesn't understand how to lead or grow an economy."

He wouldn't bite when asked to comment on his rivals' economic positions.

And Romney's rivals gave him a pass on a potentially problematic comment he made earlier in the day at the Iowa State Fair when confronted by hecklers, who suggested corporations should pay more taxes. That prompted Romney to respond, "corporations are people."

Democrats quickly jumped on the exchange, though his GOP rivals did not.

Those who tried to knock him down a rung didn't even nick him.

Struggling to find traction, Pawlenty poked at Romney on several issues, including how much land he owns as well as his support for a Massachusetts health care bill similar to the national one Obama signed into law.

But Pawlenty ended up getting pulled into a family fight with Bachmann, who has outshone him in Iowa despite his 18 months of laying groundwork for a campaign.

"It's an undisputable fact that her record of accomplishment and results has been nonexistent," Pawlenty said, adding: "She's got a record of misstating and making false statements."

Bachmann, who has eclipsed Pawlenty since entering the race, quickly responded with a list of what she called Pawlenty's liberal policies when he was Minnesota's governor, including his support for legislation to curb industrial emissions and his backing of an individual health care mandate in Minnesota, both unpopular positions with GOP activists.

"You said the era of small government is over," she told Pawlenty. "That sounds a lot like Barack Obama if you ask me."

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman — making his first debate appearance — also tried to claim the space as the economic-focused candidate by championing his state's job gains during his tenure and noting his time as an executive in his family's chemical company. But Obama's former ambassador to China also defended his work under the Democratic president as well as his support for civil unions — both issues that are problematic in a GOP primary campaign.

Lesser-known candidates tussled for position, including former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, businessman Herman Cain and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Perry was absent from the stage. But not for long.

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Thomas Beaumont covers the Republican presidential race for The Associated Press.

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Romney over Bachmann in head-to-head matchup: Reuters/Ipsos poll (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Republican Mitt Romney easily leads rival Michele Bachmann in a head-to-head matchup of the two top declared candidates for the party's 2012 presidential nomination, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.

Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, has a 40 percent to 23 percent lead over Bachmann among Republicans and independents. Among independents only, Romney's lead was 10 percentage points.

Romney has been a fragile front-runner in the Republican race to find a challenger to President Barack Obama in 2012. He leads in national polls and fund-raising, but many Republicans have been left cold by the party's candidates and urged others to jump in the race.

Bachmann, a U.S. representative from Minnesota and an outspoken social conservative, has made an early campaign splash with heavy backing from Tea Party fiscal conservatives, but her ability to broaden her support will be critical.

The poll showed nearly half of the independents surveyed, 49 percent, were undecided. Romney led among independents by 27 percent to 17 percent.

"Bachmann is getting some support from independents, which is good news for her," said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark.

Some polls show Bachmann leading in Iowa, which kicks off the nominating battle and has an influential base of social and religious conservatives. Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor who was popular with the conservative base, won Iowa in 2008 but could not duplicate that success elsewhere.

The poll of 1,173 adults, including 989 registered voters, was taken on Friday through Monday and had an overall margin of error of 3 percentage points.

It surveyed 444 Republicans, with a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points, and 221 independents, with a margin of error of 6.6 percentage points.

(Editing by Xavier Briand)

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Romney watches for Iowa path as campaigns heat up (AP)

DES MOINES, Iowa – The accelerating GOP presidential campaigns in Iowa probably will define front-runner Mitt Romney's chief challengers over the next six weeks and could force the former Massachusetts governor to reconsider his decision to mount only modest efforts in this early voting state.

Rep. Michele Bachmann's quick rise in popularity in the leadoff caucus state and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's stubbornly low poll numbers after more than a year of groundwork in Iowa give Romney new opportunities in the state where he has worked to lower expectations in his second campaign.

Romney may stick with his plan to tread lightly in Iowa and look to New Hampshire's leadoff primary for a liftoff in 2012 if there is no opening for him to seize as a consensus choice.

But Romney's healthy fundraising, with as much as $20 million in the three-month reporting period that ended last week, and his lead in national polls give him flexibility his less-known rivals lack and make it possible for him to wait to see how the chips fall in Iowa this summer, and decide later whether to up his ante.

"I think it's awfully hard for me at this stage to predict where we'll spend all our time and devote all our resources," Romney told The Associated Press this past week. "But we're focused on running our race, where we think best."

Minnesota's Bachmann was on her first sustained Iowa campaign trip this weekend. She's coming off a successful stretch marked by a well-received national debate debut, a widely covered campaign kickoff in her native Iowa and a strong showing in The Des Moines Register's poll. Bachmann nearly matched Romney, the No. 2 GOP caucus finisher four years ago, for the early Iowa lead in the survey.

Criticized for having little caucus campaign heft on her team, Bachmann has named as her deputy national campaign manager David Polyansky, who's credited with bringing organizational and strategic weight to the 2008 campaign of caucus winner Mike Huckabee.

Bachmann has feet in Christian conservative and tea party camps, and will need to quickly organize within these groups. Polyansky, who helped Huckabee form relationships with Christian home-school advocates in Iowa, for instance, can help behind the scenes. Bachmann's schedule had her headlining a tea party rally in Des Moines on Saturday.

But caucus support is more often sealed in person than in crowds at a rally or along a July Fourth parade route. Bachmann will have to meet privately with influential GOP activists, as she plans to begin this weekend. She's also staffing a phone bank to drum up support for the Aug. 13 straw poll. "We can't make enough personal appearances in 40 days to make that happen," said Bachmann's Iowa campaign chairman, Kent Sorenson.

Businessman Herman Cain, a tea party favorite, also will need strong support from this motivated but untested segment of the GOP electorate. Cain, third in the new Iowa poll, was the only other candidate in double digits, with 10 percent. But his campaign organization has suffered some key staffing departures in Iowa.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania has a foothold among social conservatives. He's looking for a straw-poll breakthrough with help from a top aide to Romney's 2008 campaign.

For Pawlenty, the task in Iowa is the opposite of Bachmann's. He will spend 15 days in the state this month trying to show that the organization he has built there can generate enthusiasm.

Pawlenty has the largest Iowa campaign staff, has spent more than two dozen days in the state since November 2009 and is airing the campaign's first television ads. He has a list of recognizable Republican supporters, from former statewide officeholders to up-and-coming figures. Yet he was the choice of only 6 percent in the Register's poll.

After saying in January he needed to "win or do very well" in the caucuses, he recently has tried to lower expectations for the straw poll, despite hiring the consultant who helped Romney win the 2007 straw poll.

"As to the straw poll, I don't know that we need to win it," Pawlenty told a conservative radio host in Des Moines this past week. "I think we need to do well and show some progress."

The pressure is on Pawlenty to assemble those pieces of the broad GOP coalition he has long said he can deliver, including social and business conservatives.

"Tim Pawlenty is coming up on a pretty serious EKG test in Iowa," said Robert Haus, who ran the 2008 Iowa caucus campaign for former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee. "Is he going to ultimately materialize into the big challenger to Romney or not?"

Pawlenty's lack of early momentum could open the door for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who could attract support from Iowans looking for a pro-business governor besides Romney. Perry, who's also popular with social conservatives, is considering a White House run and plans a national day of prayer in Houston for Aug. 6, a week before the straw poll.

A top Perry adviser, Dave Carney, has made inquiries in Iowa about the timing and rules of the straw poll and caucuses, while Perry has raised his profile with key appearances and private meetings with influential Republicans.

Perry will claim the space in Iowa for a pro-business governor if Romney does not, said Doug Gross, a top Iowa backer of Romney's 2008 campaign who tried to coax Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels into running.

"Unless Romney gets in and campaigns here, he will only go down, leaving an opportunity for a Perry," Gross said.

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