Somalia heads terrorism risk, South Sudan in top 5: survey (Reuters)

LONDON (Reuters) – Somalia is most at risk from terrorist attack, followed by Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan and the new nation of South Sudan, according to a ranking by global analysts Maplecroft.

The consultancy's latest Terrorism Risk Index also assesses threats to be rising in Yemen, Iran, Uganda, Libya, Egypt and Nigeria.

A Maplecroft statement said increased dangers seen in Yemen and Uganda were caused by al Qaeda-associated violence, those in Iran stemmed from attacks by Sunni Muslim rebel group Jundollah and those in Egypt and Libya originated in terrorist and criminal attempts to exploit Arab Spring political unrest.

Nigeria is beset by militant raids in the Niger Delta, by sectarian violence and by radical Islamist attacks in the north.

The top four rankings were unchanged from Maplecroft's previous survey issued in November 2010 but South Sudan, which came into being last month on secession for the north, replaced the Palestinian Territories at number five due to the high average number of people killed per attack in violence there.

The UK-based company's index rates 198 countries on the number, frequency and intensity of terrorism attacks, plus the likelihood of mass casualties occurring. While based on historical data, it is intended as a forward-looking assessment.

The survey's reporting period of April 2010 to March 2011, partly overlaps with the June 2009 to June 2010 data used in its previous ranking.

It defines terrorism as the calculated and purposeful use of violence employed to influence the attitudes and behavior of people and governments, and takes its raw data from the U.S. National Counter-terrorism Center's Worldwide Incidents Tracking System.

QAEDA OFFSHOOTS SEEN STOKING RISKS

Maplecroft sees 20 states at "extreme risk." Apart from the top five, these are Yemen 6, Palestinian Territories 7, Democratic Republic of Congo 8, Central African Republic 9, Colombia 10, Algeria 11, Thailand 12, Philippines 13, Russia 14, Sudan, 15, Iran 16, Burundi 17, India 18, Nigeria 19 and Israel 20.

There was an increased risk from regional offshoots of al Qaeda including Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, the survey said, adding that a spate of revenge attacks by militants in Pakistan following the killing of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden there in May showed his death had not led to a short-term fall in militancy.

On Somalia, Maplecroft said that despite suffering some losses in Mogadishu, the Islamist militant group al-Shabaab continued to hold much of south and central Somalia and "launch some of the most devastating attacks in the capital" in its fight against a Western-backed interim government.

South Sudan got its rating "primarily due to the intensity of terrorist attacks, with an average of 6.59 fatalities per terrorist incident, almost three times that of Somalia at 2.23."

At least seven rebel militias are fighting the new government's forces which are trying to establish stability after winning separation as part of the climax to a 2005 peace deal ending decades of civil war with Khartoum.

NORWAY LOW DOWN THE SCALE

Despite its elevated risk ranking, the statement said, "South Sudan's death toll of 211 from terrorist attacks pales in comparison to the top four countries. Over the same period Somalia suffered 1,385 deaths, Pakistan 2,163 deaths, Iraq 3,456 deaths and Afghanistan 3,423 deaths, which together account for over 75 percent of the world's 13,492 fatalities.

Iran continued to experience a small but lethal number of mass-casualty attacks including a twin suicide bombing in Zahedan in July 2010, which collectively killed at least 28.

One of the largest changes in rankings was Uganda, which jumped 20 places to 22 following bombings in Kampala in July 2011 that killed 79 people. The attack marked the first strikes on foreign soil by al Shabaab.

The only Western European country seen at high risk was Greece, assessed at 27, down from 24, due to violent left-wing groups. The next most at risk was Britain, rated at 38, up from 46, while France was at 45, barely changed from 44.

The survey period did not cover an attack in Norway by anti-Muslim zealot Anders Behring Breivik, who killed 77 people in Oslo and a nearby island.

After the attack, some analysts argued that terrorism monitoring had been skewed toward the threat of violence from Muslim groups, ignoring the danger posed by far right westerners.

The survey rated Norway at a lowly 112.

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Independent South Sudan "free at last" (Reuters)

JUBA (Reuters) – Tens of thousands of South Sudanese danced and cheered as their new nation declared independence on Saturday, a hard-won separation from the north that still leaves simmering issues of disputed borders and oil payments unresolved.

The president of South Sudan, Salva Kiir, stood next to his old civil war foe the president of Sudan, Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who now leads just the north, at a ceremony to mark the birth of the new nation.

Under-developed, oil-producing South Sudan won its independence in a January referendum -- the climax of a 2005 peace deal that ended decades of fighting with the north.

Security forces at first tried to control the streets in the south's dusty capital Juba, but retreated as jubilant crowds moved in overnight and through the day, waving flags, dancing and chanting "South Sudan o-yei, freedom o-yei."

Some revelers fainted in the blistering heat as South Sudan's parliamentary speaker, James Wani Igga, read out the formal declaration of independence.

"We, the democratically elected representatives of the people ... hereby declare Southern Sudan to be an independent and sovereign state," said Igga before Sudan's flag was lowered, the South Sudan flag was raised and the new anthem sung. Kiir took the oath of office.

People threw their hands in the air, embraced and wept. "We got it. We got it," one man said as he hugged a woman.

The presence of Bashir, who campaigned to keep Africa's largest state united, was a key gesture of goodwill.

It will also be an embarrassment to some Western diplomats at the event. The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Bashir on charges of war crimes in Darfur.

Bashir gave a speech congratulating the new country. "The will of the people of the south has to be respected," he said, adding that both states had to maintain peace.

RECOGNITION

North Sudan's government was the first to recognize South Sudan on Friday, hours before the split took place, a move that smoothed the way to the division.

The United States, China and Britain signaled their recognition of the state on Saturday, according to official statements and government media reports.

"After so much struggle by the people of South Sudan, the United States of America welcomes the birth of a new nation," said U.S. President Barack Obama, stopping short of announcing any immediate changes in longstanding U.S. sanctions on Sudan that Khartoum has been hoping will be lifted.

Dignitaries including U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and the leaders of about 30 African nations attended.

In a possible sign of the South's new allegiances, the crowd included about 200 supporters of Darfur rebel leader Abdel Wahed al-Nur, fighting Khartoum in an eight-year insurgency just over South Sudan's border in the north.

Earlier, the supporters of Nur's rebel Sudan Liberation Army faction stood in a line chanting "Welcome, welcome new state," wearing T-shirts bearing their leader's image. One carried a banner reading "El Bashir is wanted dead or alive."

Traditional dance groups drummed and waved shields and staffs in a carnival atmosphere.

"Free at last," said Simon Agany, 34, as he walked around shaking hands after midnight -- the time when officials said the South actually became the world's newest nation.

The crowd cheered as Kiir unveiled a giant statue of civil war hero John Garang, who signed the peace deal with the north.

Kiir offered an amnesty to rebels fighting his government and promised to bring peace to troubled border areas.

"I would like to take this opportunity to declare amnesty for all those who have taken up arms against Sudan," he said.

"I want to assure the people of Abyei, Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan that we have not forgotten you. When you cry, we cry. When you bleed, we bleed. I pledge to you today that we will find a just peace for all," he said.

SEEDS OF FUTURE TENSION

Khartoum's recognition of the South did not dispel fears of future tensions.

Northern and southern leaders have still not agreed on a list of issues, most importantly the line of the border, the ownership of the disputed Abyei region and how they will handle oil revenues, the lifeblood of both economies.

At the stroke of midnight the Republic of Sudan lost almost a third of its territory and about three quarters of its oil reserves, which are sited in the south. It faced the future with insurgencies in its Darfur and Southern Kordofan regions.

In Khartoum on Saturday, one sign of the new national order was the disappearance of some English-language and SPLM-linked newspapers. The north said it suspended them on Friday as they were published or owned by southerners -- an ominous signal for more than 1 million southerners left in the north.

Many northerners see the separation as a loss of face.

Analysts have long feared a return to war if north-south disputes are not resolved.

Mostly Muslim Sudan fought rebels in the south, where most follow Christianity and traditional beliefs, for all but a few years from the 1950s in civil wars fueled by ethnicity, religion, oil and ideology.

(Additional reporting by Ulf Laessing, Andrew Heavens and Khaled Abdelaziz in Khartoum and Megan Davies at the United Nations; Writing by Andrew Heavens; Editing by Tim Pearce)

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South Sudan becomes world's newest nation (AFP)

JUBA (AFP) – Celebrations erupted in South Sudan on Saturday as the world's newest nation proclaimed formal independence and turned the page on five decades of devastating conflict with the north.

"Our martyrs did not die in vain... We have waited for more than 56 years for this day. It is a day that will be forever engraved on our hearts and minds," President Salva Kiir told tens of thousands of jubilant southerners at the official ceremony in Juba.

Earlier, parliament Speaker James Wani Igga read out the declaration of the south's secession from the north following a near unanimous vote for separation in a January referendum.

"We, the democratically elected representatives of the people, based on the will of the people of South Sudan, and as confirmed by the outcome of the referendum of self-determination, hereby declare South Sudan to be an independent and sovereign nation," Wani Igga told the cheering crowds.

South Sudan's national flag was then raised, to wild applause, tears and song.

"I should cry for the recognition of this flag among the flags of the world," shouted one tearful man.

"We have been denied our rights. Today, no more shall that happen."

The declaration of independence affirmed the new state's democratic and multi-ethnic and multi-confessional character, and its commitment to friendly relations with all countries "including the Republic of Sudan."

Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, guest of honour at the ceremony, watched a parade by thousands of members of his former military foes, the SPLA, whom he failed to defeat as head of the northern army for 16 years.

In a conciliatory speech, Bashir repeated his wish to see the newborn nation succeed.

"We will fulfill our commitment to help the new state of South Sudan in its first steps, because we want it to succeed, and because its success will be our success," Bashir said.

From early morning, revellers had gathered at the venue amid tight security for the ceremony which was attended by dozens of African leaders and senior Western officials.

It was the largest international gathering ever seen in the war-damaged former garrison town on the White Nile that lacks even basic infrastructure, and army generals were asked to vacate their seats to make space for foreign guests.

International dignitaries attending the ceremony included UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, US ambassador to the UN Susan Rice, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and British Foreign Secretary William Hague

More than a dozen African leaders also attended.

Recognition of the newly independent state flooded in from around the world, with US President Barack Obama vowing to support South Sudan in the "hard work" of nation building.

British Prime Minister David Cameron called it a historic day "for South Sudan and the whole of Africa."

Ban hailed the new state's birth "after a struggle that destroyed so many lives for so many years," and said it was an important day for the United Nations which has been engaged in promoting peace in Sudan for many years.

South Sudan's independence came exactly six months after southerners voted almost unanimously to split with their former civil war enemies in the north.

For decades, until a peace agreement was signed in 2005, southern rebels fought successive wars with the north, leaving the region in ruins, millions of people dead and a legacy of mutual mistrust.

The independence ceremony was held at the mausoleum of the late rebel leader John Garang, who died just months after signing the peace accord that ended Africa's longest-running conflict and opened the door to nationhood.

Roman Catholic Archbishop Paulino Lokudu appealed for reconciliation after the long years of civil war.

"We pray for a new mentality of mutual understanding and cooperation between our two new neighbouring nations," he said.

Some at the ceremony were critical of Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of crimes against humanity and genocide in Darfur, Sudan's war-torn western region.

Around 200 supporters of Darfur rebel leader Abdelwahid Nur held a banner reading: "The new beginning," and "Together we must stop genocide in Darfur, Nuba Mountains."

The Nuba Mountains in South Kordofan state in the north have seen deadly clashes in the run-up to southern independence between northern troops and pro-southern militia.

But Khartoum was among the first countries to officially recognise the fledgling nation, which now needs all the help it can get to meet the challenges of building a stable and prosperous future.

For this, it must strike a cooperative relationship with Bashir, given the strong ties that continue to bind the two countries, and despite the strain on relations caused by the bloodshed in the Nuba Mountains.

Bashir said it was the joint responsibility of both nations to build confidence and reach agreement on outstanding issues that were not resolved before partition, during talks in Addis Ababa.

Kiir called on his people to forgive those who had caused them suffering and urged them to take responsibility for building a "strong foundation" for their nation.

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South Sudan is world's newest nation at midnight (AP)

JUBA, Sudan – When Southern Sudan becomes the world's newest country on Saturday, its people will rejoice in the streets as it enters statehood as one of the poorest and least developed places on earth.

But advocates and diplomats warned Friday that when the celebrations subside and the dignitaries leave, unresolved problems between the south and the northern government, could spark renewed conflict along their new international border.

The internationally-brokered 2005 peace deal that ended more than two decades of north-south war expires Saturday.

South Sudan becomes its own nation at midnight. The U.N. recognizes 192 countries; South Sudan will be 193.

Sudan, the country South Sudan is breaking away from, will recognize the new country as soon as Friday turns to Saturday.

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Report: 197 migrants feared drowned off Sudan (AP)

KHARTOUM, Sudan – A ship carrying African migrants bound for Saudi Arabia has caught fire and 197 people are feared drowned off Sudan's northeastern coast, a semiofficial news agency reported Tuesday.

The Sudan Media Center said three of the migrants were rescued. The ship had launched from the Red Sea State and sailed for four hours in Sudanese territorial waters before the blaze began, according to the news agency.

Local authorities were still searching for possible survivors, it said.

The report says the owners of the boat, all Yemenis, have been arrested, although it gave no more details about them.

A second attempt to smuggle 247 migrants, mostly from Chad, Nigeria, Somalia and Eritrea, also was uncovered in the same state, the report said, without elaborating.

Sudan has experienced several other incidents of illegal migrants drowning off the coast on their way to nearby countries in past years. Thousands of African migrants, especially Eritreans and Ethiopians, risk the dangerous route to escape conflicts in their countries and seek better lives in oil-rich states.

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