Obama's one big advantage going into 2012 election: fundraising (The Christian Science Monitor)

Washington – President Obama faces an uphill battle for reelection, with unemployment projected to remain high at about 9 percent through 2012 and job approval ratings in the tank.

But as an incumbent president facing no primary challenger, Mr. Obama enjoys one big advantage: fundraising. So far, he has raised $155 million for both his campaign and for the Democratic National Committee (DNC), which will help his reelection effort. That’s way more than all the Republican candidates have raised, combined.

All that money allows the Obama campaign to start organizing now in the key battleground states, renew contacts with the 2008 voters, and recruit volunteers. The Republicans, meanwhile, are still figuring out who their nominee will be.

RECOMMENDED: Six liabilities for Obama in 2012

Obama’s advantage comes not just in the quantity of money he has raised, but in the opportunity for efficiency. Thus, an early emphasis on high-dollar fundraisers, because each one is a three-fer: In one fell swoop, Obama is pulling in cash for his opponent-free primary season, the general election, and the DNC. If a donor maxes out on all three, that’s $35,800.

“When you’re president, you don’t have time to do two fundraisers a day,” says Anthony Corrado, an expert on campaign finance at Colby College in Waterville, Maine. “[The big fundraisers] allow them to be very efficient with the principals’ time – not just the president, but also the first lady and vice president.”

Another reason to hit the high rollers early: The $30,800 donation limit to the DNC is annual. The Democrats want their big donors to give this year, so they can ask for another $30,800 next year.

For other reasons, small donors are also critical. We don’t see a lot of press releases about the high-dollar events, but plenty of hoopla about how many folks have gone online and sent in even a few bucks.

The Obama campaign home page has a big ticker at the top counting the number of donors. On Monday, the campaign was so excited about reaching its one-millionth donor that press secretary Ben Label sent out a screen shot of the ticker close to 1,000,000 and then another one when it was at exactly 1,000,000.

Last Thursday, in an e-mail to supporters, Obama campaign manager Jim Messina highlighted the number of people who donated in the third quarter of this year a€“ a record 606,027 a€“ before getting to the grand total of money raised, $70 million to the campaign and DNC. Those who donated made 766,000 donations, with 98 percent of them at $250 or less. The average donation was $56.

“That support translates directly to what we can do on the ground,” Mr. Messina writes. “In the past three months we’ve grown our organizing staff by 50 percent, and opened up three new field offices every week. Thousands of volunteers and organizers made 3 million phone calls and in-person visits to voters.”

Donations from the financial services sector present a mixed picture for Obama and the Democrats. The president has raised $15.6 million from employees of that industry, according to an analysis by the Washington Post of data from the Center for Responsive Politics. But some $12 million went to the DNC.

In a head-to-head matchup against leading Republican candidate Mitt Romney, a founder of the private-equity firm Bain Capital, Obama doesn’t fare too well in financial-sector donations. The president has raised just $3.9 million, versus $7.5 million for Romney, the Post reports.

Still, Obama and the DNC have had some success in raising money on Wall Street. One-third of the president’s top 40 fundraisers come from the world of finance, including former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine of MF Global, hedge-fund manager Orin Kramer, and UBS executive Robert Wolf, according to the Post.

But the president isn’t exactly advertising the Wall Street support he does have, as he strikes a populist tone in speeches and tells reporters he understands the frustration expressed by the Occupy Wall Street movement.

In the end, Obama’s healthy fundraising numbers – so far, $89 million for his campaign and $66 million for the DNC – don’t tell us much about how he will do on Election Day, Nov. 6, 2012.

“What it shows you is that he retains a loyal base of support,” says Mr. Corrado. “He’s going to amass the sums needed to be financially competitive with whoever the GOP nominee is. But the real question is going to be whether the investment he’s making now in organizing and campaigning is going to be enough to overcome general perceptions about the state of the economy.”

RECOMMENDED: Six liabilities for Obama in 2012

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Obama jobs speech venue part of election strategy (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama's use of a rare joint session of Congress to deliver a jobs speech on Thursday reflects a political strategy to try to blame Republicans for an economy at risk of sliding back into recession.

The choice of venue -- the Republican-controlled House of Representatives -- is aimed at sending a clear message to voters that if his plan to reduce high unemployment is blocked by Congress, it is Republicans and not the White House standing in the way of job growth.

With unemployment stubbornly high and most Americans unhappy with his handling of the economy, Obama's speech is part of a 2012 election strategy to shift some of the blame for the struggling economy onto Congress and to portray it as obstructionist.

"It's very important for the president to invoke Congress from the very beginning of this round in the jobs debate," said Jared Bernstein, chief economic adviser to Vice President Joe Biden until April 2011.

"Because if Congress in general, and the House Republicans in particular, block his agenda, he needs to be able to explain to the American people who's standing between them, their jobs, their paychecks and economic opportunities."

Republicans reject the view that they have been obstructionist. They say Obama has spent nearly $1 trillion to try to stimulate the economy but that it has failed to create jobs and instead dramatically increased the national debt.

David Gergen, a political analyst and adviser to four presidents, said using a joint session was "first and foremost an attempt to have Republicans be jointly responsible for the state of the economy."

Gergen, who has advised both Democratic and Republican presidents, said: "He is in effect going into the lion's den and looking at the Republicans in the eye. It's very personal. He wants to say 'I am trying to do something -- are you?' It's a dare. It's a way to shame them."

White House officials have said the speech is being delivered inside the U.S. Capitol because many of the job creation proposals Obama will offer will require the approval of Congress, which controls the purse strings.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said the proposals should get bipartisan support "if members of Congress are serious about trying to help the economy, which we believe is their number one obligation."

VENUE CARRIES RISKS

Yet Obama's decision to deliver his critical jobs speech to a joint session of the U.S. House and Senate, with all the pomp and ceremony attached to such an event, carries substantial risk if it disappoints or is perceived as being too partisan.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former top adviser to the 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain, said he believed Obama was using the venue because "it basically allows him to run against Congress" in next year's presidential election.

But Holtz-Eakin said Obama has a delicate task of delivering a speech in such a high-profile and formal setting that does not appear too political.

He added: "There are a lot of disadvantages in terms of raised expectations. It looks to me like the ratio of hype-to-substance is pretty high here."

Most analysts do not expect the speech to contain any bold new proposals, but instead job-creation measures that have already been debated since the 2008 financial crisis, such as additional tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

Gergen said: "When you ask for a joint session you are diving off a high board -- you've got to deliver. And he runs a real risk of markets sinking the next day."

Barry Bosworth, a veteran fiscal and monetary policy expert at the Brookings Institution think tank, said Obama's choice of venue was "very dangerous if he does something that is perceived as purely political."

"If he does not have a big announcement, if he's not got something more concrete to offer, it will be perceived by a lot of outsiders as an inappropriate use of a joint session."

Presidents rarely call a joint session of Congress. Apart from the annual State of the Union address, the platform is used sparingly.

During eight years in office, Democratic President Bill Clinton called a joint session twice, to deliver speeches on the economy and on healthcare reform, according to the Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Republican President George W. Bush used the venue just once -- nine days after the September 11, 2001 terror attacks.

Two years ago, Obama used the platform to push Congress to pass his healthcare plan.

A former Capitol Hill Republican and leadership aide with close ties to the House Republican leadership told Reuters there was already a feeling of cynicism among Republicans about a speech they view as simply recycling old ideas.

"The benefit of a joint session is you are really elevating things to a new level," the former aide said. "But you've set expectations of something new and something bold. If that is not the case even the average American will view this somewhat cynically."

(Editing by Ross Colvin; editing by Mohammad Zargham)

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Thaksin allies win landmark Thai election (AFP)

BANGKOK (AFP) – Allies of Thailand's fugitive ex-leader Thaksin Shinawatra stormed to victory in elections Sunday, in a remarkable comeback after years of turmoil sparked by his overthrow in a military coup.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva conceded defeat and congratulated the opposition led by Thaksin's youngest sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, who is now set to become Thailand first female premier.

With almost all the votes counted, Puea Thai had won a clear majority with 263 seats out of 500, well ahead of Abhisit's Democrats with 161, according to the Election Commission, which estimated turnout at 74 percent.

"The outcome is clear -- Puea Thai has won the election and the Democrats are defeated," Abhisit told supporters at the party's Bangkok headquarters.

The poll was the first major electoral test for the elite-backed government since mass demonstrations by Thaksin's "Red Shirt" supporters last year paralysed Bangkok and unleashed the worst political violence in decades.

A smiling Yingluck earlier addressed jubilant supports at the Puea Thai Party's headquarters in the Thai capital, saying: "Thaksin has called to congratulate me and said there was a tough job ahead."

The 44-year-old telegenic businesswoman, a political novice who Thaksin has described as his "clone", said she was working on building a coalition with the smaller Chart Thai Pattana and other parties.

"People are giving me a chance and I will work to my best ability," she added.

Amid fears that an opposition victory could unleash more deadly protests or even another army takeover, Thaksin called on all sides to respect the outcome of the ballot.

"All parties must respect the people's decision otherwise our country cannot achieve peace," the former billionaire telecoms tycoon told Thai television by telephone from his base in Dubai.

"I think people want to see reconciliation. They want to move forward," he said. "We will not seek revenge."

Toppled by the military in 2006 and now living in self-imposed exile to avoid a jail term for corruption, Thaksin nevertheless dominated the election in Thailand, where he remains a hugely divisive figure.

He is adored by rural voters for his populist policies while in power such as cheap healthcare and microcredit schemes, but hated by the ruling elite who see him as corrupt, authoritarian and a threat to the revered monarchy.

The election is seen as a major test of the kingdom's ability to emerge from its long political crisis, which has seen years of street protests by Thaksin's "Red Shirt" supporters and the rival "Yellow Shirt" royalists.

More than 170,000 police were deployed to secure the vote, but it appeared to proceed peacefully. Long queues were seen at polling stations.

Political observers had said that a close result could have fuelled a fresh round of street protests or military intervention, but a clear win by the opposition will make it harder for the generals to justify seizing power.

The Puea Thai party has proposed an amnesty for convicted politicians -- a move apparently aimed at bringing Thaksin home, where he faces terrorism charges in connection with the April-May 2010 protests.

More than 90 people, mostly civilians, died in a series of street clashes between mostly unarmed red-clad protesters loyal to Thaksin and government soldiers firing live ammunition in the streets of the capital.

Many doubt the Bangkok-based establishment in government, military and palace circles would allow the one-time owner of Manchester City football club to come back as a free man.

If Thaksin tries to return the army may "strike back", said Thai academic Pavin Chachavalpongpun, of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

"If he sets foot in Thailand the military could accuse him of coming back and trying to create disunity among Thais."

Asked about his plans, Thaksin said Sunday he hoped to see his daughter marry in Thailand in December.

"I don't have to return home soon. I can stay here, but I just really want to attend my daughter's wedding. I don't want to cause trouble by returning home."

The military is a constant wildcard in a nation that has seen almost as many coups as elections. The judiciary also has a record of intervening in politics.

Thaksin or his allies have won the most seats in the past four elections, but the courts reversed the results of the last two polls.

British-born Abhisit took office in a 2008 parliamentary vote after a court ruling threw out the previous administration, and he was accused by his foes of being an unelected puppet of the military and the establishment.

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Thaksin party wins Thai election by a landslide (Reuters)

BANGKOK (Reuters) – Thailand's opposition won a landslide election victory on Sunday, led by the sister of former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a triumph for red-shirt protesters who clashed with the army last year.

Exit polls showed Yingluck Shinawatra's Puea Thai (For Thais) party winning a clear majority of parliament's 500 seats, paving the way for the 44-year-old business executive to become Thailand's first woman prime minister.

"I'll do my best and will not disappoint you," she told supporters after receiving a call of congratulations from her billionaire brother, who was ousted in a 2006 coup and lives in Dubai to avoid jail for graft charges that he says were politically motivated.

"He told me that there is still much hard work ahead of us," she told reporters.

With nearly all votes counted, Yingluck's party won a projected 261 seats with Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's Democrat Party taking 162, according to the Election Commission.

Abhisit conceded defeat. "I would like to congratulate the Puea Thai Party for the right to form a government," he said.

Exit polls by Bangkok's Suan Dusit University showed Puea Thai doing even better, winning 313 seats compared to just 152 for the Democrats, dismal enough to threaten Abhisit's job as party leader.

Yingluck's supporters were jubilant, erupting in roars and cheers as television broadcast the exit polls.

"Number one Yingluck," some shouted. "Prime Minister Yingluck" screamed others, as party members slapped each other on the back.

"Yingluck has helped us and now Puea Thai can solve our problems and they'll solve the country's problems," said Saiksa Chankerd, a 40-year-old government worker.

The results were a rebuke of the traditional establishment of generals, old-money families and royal advisers in Bangkok who loathed Thaksin and backed Abhisit, an Oxford-trained economist who struggled to find a common touch.

"People wanted change and they got it," said Kongkiat Opaswongkarn, chief executive of Asia Plus Securities in Bangkok. "It tells you that a majority of people still want most of the things that the ex-prime minister had done for the country in the past."

The size of Puea Thai's victory could usher in much-needed political stability after six years of sporadic unrest that featured the occupation of Bangkok's two airports, a blockade of parliament, an assassination attempt and protests last year that descended into chaotic clashes with the army.

"Chances of blocking Puea Thai in the near term are severely limited," said Roberto Herrera-Lim, Southeast Asian analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. "The instability everyone has been worried about now looks less likely. The military will have to be pragmatic now."

RED SHIRT VILLAGES

Yingluck was feted like a rock-star by the red shirts who designated entire communities in Thailand's rugged, vote-rich northeast plateau as "red shirt villages" to help mobilize supporters, each festooned with red flags and Thaksin posters.

"This win is very important because it will determine Thailand's destiny," said Kwanchai Praipana, a red-shirt leader in Udon Thani province, where the movement had set up hundreds of red villages in recent weeks.

The red shirts accuse the rich, the establishment and top military brass of breaking laws with impunity -- grievances that have simmered since the 2006 coup -- and have clamored for Thaksin's return.

Thaksin said he would "wait for the right moment" to come home. "If my return is going to cause problems, then I will not do it yet. I should be a solution, not a problem," he told reporters in Dubai.

Thaksin, a former telecommunications tycoon, scored landslide election wins in 2001 and 2005 and remains idolized by the poor as the first politician to address the needs of millions living beyond Bangkok's bright lights.

Yingluck electrified his supporters, ran a disciplined campaign and promised Thaksin-style populist policies, including a big rise in the national minimum wage and free tablet PCs for nearly one million school children.

Abhisit had warned of instability if Yingluck won, blaming the red shirts for unrest last year in which 91 people, mostly civilians, were killed. They cast Thaksin as a crony capitalist, fugitive and terrorist who condones mob rule.

But Abhisit's denial that troops were responsible for a single death or injury last year was mocked even in the Democrat stronghold of Bangkok. A web-savvy generation could, with a few mouse-clicks, watch videos on Youtube showing military snipers firing on civilians, eroding his credibility.

Abhisit's backers want Thaksin to serve a two-year prison term. They dismiss Yingluck as a simple proxy for her brother.

Throughout the six-week campaign, the two sides presented similar populist campaigns of subsidies for the poor, improved healthcare benefits and infrastructure investment including high-speed rail systems across the country -- a style of policymaking known in Thailand as "Thaksinomics."

The clear majority should make it easier for the opposition to execute those promises but could also fan inflation if they pursue a plan to lift the minimum wage to 300 baht ($9.70) per day -- a roughly 40 percent increase.

The election is Thailand's 26th since it became a democracy in 1932, ending seven centuries of absolute monarchy. Since then, it has seen 18 military coups or coup attempts.

Opinion polls had predicted Puea Thai would win about 240 seats, short of a majority. In that scenario, smaller parties would have been crucial, possibly helping the Democrats stay in power if they had managed to form a coalition government.

Yingluck said her party was in talks with Chart Thai Pattana, a smaller party with a projected 20 seats, to join hands in parliament and provide some breathing space.

($1 = 30.795 Thai Baht)

(Additional reporting by Vithoon Amorn, Ploy Ten Kate, Apornrath Phoonphongphiphat and Praveen Menon; Editing by Nick Macfie and Brian Rhoads)

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