Manufacturing sector grows faster in September (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Factories grew more quickly in September as production and hiring increased, suggesting that manufacturing would help keep the economy from slipping into a new recession.

Other data on Monday offered more good news for the troubled U.S. economy, with strong demand for new motor vehicles putting sales on track to surpass August's rate, and construction spending unexpectedly rebounding in August.

"That hardly sounds like an economy flat on its back. The economy is still moving forward. But no one should confuse direction with speed," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania.

September marked the 26th straight month of expansion in a sector that has shouldered the broader economic recovery, and the factory report implied that an outright contraction in output would probably be avoided.

The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 51.6 last month from 50.6 in August, boosted by a rebound in production and increased factory hiring. But new orders fell for third month.

Economists had expected the index to edge down to 50.5. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing.

The data was eclipsed in financial markets by Greece's admission that it would miss its deficit target this year, which weighed on stocks worldwide. Prices of U.S. Treasury debt rallied, while the dollar rose against a basket of currencies.

Europe's worsening debt crisis has left the U.S. economy on the edge of a new downturn. The economy grew at a 1.3 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, an improvement from the 0.4 percent in the January-March period.

The growth in U.S. manufacturing is bucking a global trend. Factory activity in Europe and Asia slumped in September to levels not seen since the depths of the financial crisis as export demand dropped.

The Global Manufacturing PMI, compiled by JPMorgan with research and supply organizations, contracted for the first time in over two years.

VEHICLE SALES, CONSTRUCTION SPENDING STRONG

The Federal Reserve last month announced a new measure designed to push long-term borrowing costs lower by shifting assets on its balance sheet to help the tentative economy.

Last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank might need to ease monetary policy further if inflation or inflation expectations fell significantly.

For now, indications are that the economy will avoid a recession and remain on a slow growth track, even as weak incomes constrain consumer spending -- the main engine of growth.

But households were more willing to spend on motor vehicles last month. Reports so far from General Motors, Chrysler and Volkswagen suggest sales could be about 8 percent higher than August's on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis.

A separate report from the Commerce Department showed an unexpected rebounded in construction spending in August as outlays on state and local government building projects rose sharply.

Construction spending rose 1.4 percent to an annual rate of $799.15 billion, the Commerce Department said. Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent drop.

"Spending should rise in the third quarter as a result of post-(Hurricane) Irene repairs. Construction is set to add to GDP growth in third and fourth quarter but the sector is still very weak," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York.

Spending on non-residential structures rose in the second quarter at its quickest pace since the third quarter of 2007.

Data last week showed that cash-rich U.S. businesses continued to invest in machinery, a trend that economists expect to hold and keep the economy expanding.

Manufacturing accounts for about 12 percent of gross domestic product and almost 11 percent of nonfarm employment.

The tenor of the ISM manufacturing report was strengthened by an increase in hiring last month, which could be a good omen for Friday's employment report.

The economy failed to add jobs in August, leaving the unemployment rate at a lofty 9.1 percent.

Other details of the factories survey showed production rebounded last month after contracting in August. However, new orders contracted for a third straight month, potentially pointing to a pullback in manufacturing in the months ahead.

"The main concern going forward would be if new orders didn't pick up," said Bradley J. Holcomb, chair of the ISM manufacturing business survey committee in Dallas, Texas.

But inventories are growing at a slower pace and the ISM viewed customers' supplies as too low, which should boost future orders. In addition, orders for exports rose and suppliers are taking a little bit longer to make deliveries to manufacturers, which is also a good sign.

(Additional reporting by David Lawder in Washington, Ellen Freilich in New York and Bernie Woodall in Detroit; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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Analysis: Pension funds in new crisis as deficit hole grows (Reuters)

LONDON (Reuters) – Pension funds in developed economies are facing a new crisis as falling equities and tumbling bond yields widen their deficits, threatening the incomes and retirement dates of future retirees.

At the heart of their problems is a steady move by pension plans in the United States, euro zone, Japan and the UK to cut exposure to risk after the financial crisis.

But this "de-risking" may end up depressing their long-term returns from stock market investment and challenge the conventional wisdom that shares generate higher returns than bonds.

With weaker holdings and increased liabilities, companies will find it more difficult to fund existing pension schemes. They may cut new business investments as they use more cash to pay pensions.

For future pensioners, it means they will potentially face a lower retirement income and a longer working life -- or both.

This year has been a nightmare for many in the industry -- which controls $35 trillion, or a third of global financial assets -- and funding deficits are posting double-digit rises.

"We had a credit crisis and government bond crisis, and the third one we have is the pension crisis. This is the one where everything is going wrong and there's no obvious way out," said Kevin Wesbroom, UK head of global risk services at consultancy Aon Hewitt.

The sharp retreat in stocks through the summer has hurt them again by weakening their asset positions and threatening to erode stock market recoveries seen since the equity collapse surrounding the 2007-2009 credit crisis.

Even lower bond yields are proving to be a new headache.

"The real killer is liabilities are going up because in the flight to quality everyone gets out of equities and runs for cover in safe assets like government bonds, and yields are falling," said Wesbroom.

Many defined benefit(DB) pension plans -- where benefits are pre-determined -- pay a fixed stream of income to retirees.

The low-yielding environment makes it harder for the funds to meet these bond-like liabilities, forcing them to accumulate even more fixed income instruments to try to meet their obligations, creating a vicious circle.

FALLING YIELDS

Recent data on pension deficits highlight the plight of many pension funds.

In the United States, funding deficits of the 100 largest DB plans rose $68 billion to $254 billion in July, according to the Milliman Pension Fund Index. July marked the 10th largest deficit rise in the index's 11 year history.

Even if these companies were to achieve an optimistic annual return of as much as 8 percent and keep the current benchmark yield of 5.12 percent, their funding status is not estimated to improve beyond 93 percent by end-2013 from the current 83 percent.

Aon Hewitt estimates deficits of DB pension plans for FTSE 350 companies as of end-August rose 20 billion pounds from July to a 2011 high of 58 billion pounds. Their funding ratio stands at 89.8 percent, down from 94.1 percent three years ago.

The drop in the funding ratio is driven by a rally in the fixed income market. In Europe, the double-A rated corporate bond yield -- one of the benchmark rates used by regulators -- fell 300 basis points in the last three years to 3.55 percent, according to Barclays Capital.

The widely used rule of thumb is that a 50 basis points fall in the discount rate roughly results in a 10 percent increase in liabilities.

"Things look substantially worse now than they were during the credit crisis," said Pat Race, senior partner at investment consultancy Mercer.

In reaction to the past few years of an equity decline and volatility, many pension funds are indeed planning to buy more bonds, a move highlighted by Mercer's survey of over 1,000 European DB pension funds in May.

"Trustees do want to de-risk but financial directors have irrational desire to have equities. They are too wedded to equity markets," Race said.

"You still have massive uncertainties with a potential for another dip into recession. I don't see any reversion to days when equities are dominant part of DB plans."

JP Morgan's data shows pension funds and insurance companies in the United States, euro zone, Japan and UK bought $173 billion of bonds in the first quarter, boosting their bond buying for the third quarter in a row.

At the same time, they cut equity buying for a fifth quarter in a row, selling $22 billion of stocks in Q1.

In Europe, pension funds slashed their weightings for equities to an average of 31.6 percent in 2011 from 43.8 percent in 2006, while fixed income holdings rose to 54 percent from 47.8 percent in the same period, according to Mercer.

EQUITY PREMIUM PUZZLE

Growing pension funds deficits on corporate balance sheets may make it more difficult for companies to access credit and discourage firms which are already hoarding cash from spending cash to expand business.

For wider financial markets, the giant industry's gradual move away from stocks could hit equity risk premium -- excess return of equities over risk-free securities which compensates investors for taking on the relatively higher risk.

This may reinvigorate an academic debate where some economic analysis suggests the equity risk premium should be small, in most cases less than half a percentage point, as opposed to the widely-used range of 4-6 percent.

Indeed, 10-year U.S. Treasuries gave higher total returns in the past 10 years on a rolling basis than world stocks. http://link.reuters.com/nyv53s

"The puzzle... is that for the past 20 years, there has been no net equity risk premium. With the recent sell-off in risk and the rally in bonds, I think there might have been a net premium on bonds," Stephen Jen, managing partner at SLJ Macro Partners, said in a note to clients.

"This has turned financial theory on its head, and managers of pension funds and sovereign wealth funds need to think about this very carefully."

(Editing by Anna Willard)

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JPMorgan quarterly profit rises, loan book grows (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) – JPMorgan Chase & Co posted a higher-than-expected jump in second-quarter profit as it wrote off fewer bad mortgages and credit card loans.

The second-largest U.S. bank managed to make new loans faster than customers paid off existing ones during the quarter, a reversal from the first quarter and a bright spot for a sector long plagued by weak loan demand.

JPMorgan's revenue rose and it added staff, and its shares were up 2.75 percent in afternoon trading.

But the bank still faces stiff headwinds, including big expenses from mortgages as the effects of the housing crisis linger.

Foreclosures could take another 12 to 18 months to start declining, Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said on a conference call with reporters.

"JPMorgan's revenue growth is a sign that things are getting better. They're just not getting better quickly," said Ralph Cole, portfolio manager at Ferguson Wellman Capital Management in Portland, Oregon. Ferguson Wellman owns JPMorgan shares.

Although loans at the end of the second quarter were up from the end of the first quarter, average loans outstanding during the latest quarter declined, signaling that even if loan demand is improving, growth is uneven.

JPMorgan is the first major U.S. bank to post quarterly results, and its performance gives hints about how other banks fared in the period.

BOND TRADING

Bond trading revenue fell 18 percent from the first quarter, but the decline was less than some investors had feared. Shares of investment banks Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Morgan Stanley rose on hopes that JPMorgan's trading results bode well for the sector.

JPMorgan earned $5.43 billion, or $1.27 a share, in the second quarter, beating the average Wall Street estimate by 6 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

The results were up from year-earlier earnings of $4.8 billion, or $1.09 a share.

The bank benefited from not having to pay a British tax on bonuses. In the year-earlier period, that tax reduced profits by $550 million, or 14 cents a share.

JPMorgan made more loans during the quarter, net of customer loan repayments. Its loan book grew to $689.74 billion at the end of the quarter from $686 billion at the end of March as increased business lending offset a 2 percent decline in consumer lending.

The bank also gathered more deposits during the quarter; deposits surged by 5 percent from the first quarter to $1.05 trillion. Chief Financial Officer Douglas Braunstein said mid-sized companies delivered much of the money.

Deposits could support more loans in the future, if there is enough demand.

Shrinking loan books and low interest rates since 2008 have made it difficult for banks to post profits, or increase them. A large part of earnings over the past year has come from setting aside less money to cover bad loans, or dipping into funds previously set aside.

Many analysts are hoping banks will start to post loan growth in the coming quarters, which would be a sign of sustainable increases in profits.

Dimon, who is famously blunt, seemed optimistic about the outlook for profits. He said the bank will build capital levels in the coming months, and criticized regulators for not allowing it to return those funds to shareholders faster.

"God knows why we have to hold all that capital," Dimon said, adding that banks' capital ratios are going "to drive up so fast people are going to be surprised."

Banks returned billions of dollars of capital to investors in 2007 and 2008, even as large clouds gathered over the mortgage market.

JPMorgan reduced the expense it recorded for credit costs to $1.81 billion in the second quarter from $3.36 billion a year earlier. However, that was up from $1.17 billion in the 2011 first quarter.

JPMorgan shares were up 2.75 percent to $40.71 in afternoon trading following the results. Stocks rose in early dealings on the bank's strong earnings but later pulled back.

TAKING TIME WITH MORTGAGES

Dimon said in the earnings announcement that mortgage costs were down slightly, but cautioned that the housing market was still working through difficulties.

"Unfortunately, it will take some time to resolve these issues and it is possible we will incur additional costs along the way," he added.

In a sign of the lingering difficulties that banks are facing with home loans, JPMorgan said it expects to have to repurchase $3.6 billion of mortgages that it packaged into bonds. Such repurchases are usually because a bank failed to properly collect payments on the mortgages, or should never have sold them to investors in the first place.

JPMorgan said it added $1.3 billion to its litigation reserves, mainly for mortgage-related matters. It also continued to add to its loan reserves for losses on mortgages.

"It is possible we are very over-reserved in mortgage land," Dimon said in a conference call with analysts.

He expects to win a legal battle with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp over liabilities left from busted lender Washington Mutual, pieces of which JPMorgan bought in a government-arranged deal during the financial crisis.

Credit card delinquencies are improving so quickly that the bank drew down its reserves for losses on those balances, adding 15 cents a share to second-quarter profit.

The charge-off rate for uncollectable card debt will be down to about 4.5 percent this quarter, nearly a year earlier than previously expected, said Chief Financial Officer Douglas Braunstein. The improvement echoed comments Wednesday from card lender Capital One Financial Corp.

(Reporting by David Henry; editing by John Wallace)

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