Showing posts with label likely. Show all posts
Showing posts with label likely. Show all posts

2011/11/14

House GOP leader says deficit deal likely (AP)

WASHINGTON – The No. 2 Republican in the House says he's still confident that a bipartisan deficit "supercommittee" will be able to reach agreement even though there's little more than a week to go before its deadline.

Majority Leader Eric Cantor said he knows the panel is under great pressure but he believes its members can succeed by Nov. 23.

The panel is charged with coming up with at least $1.2 trillion worth of deficit cuts over the coming decade but has been deadlocked over taxes and cuts to benefit programs. Failure would trigger automatic spending cuts to the Pentagon budget and a wide range of domestic programs.

The Virginia Republican declined to otherwise comment on the committee's work, including last week's GOP proposal for revenue hikes.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

Despite prodding from President Barack Obama, members of Congress' supercommittee concede no deal is in sight to meet their goal of $1.2 trillion or more in deficit savings over the next decade.

Instead, with only 10 days remaining until a Nov. 23 deadline, the panel is divided along partisan lines and Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., said Sunday the six committee members of his own party "have not coalesced around a plan."

Despite the difficulties, Clyburn and Republicans on the deficit panel all said they haven't given up hope of a deal by the deadline.

"But if this was easy, the president of the United States and the speaker of the House would have gotten it done themselves," said Rep Jeb Hensarling of Texas, the Republican chairman of the committee.

Obama mentioned his own unsuccessful negotiations with Speaker John Boehner in passing at a news conference in Hawaii on Sunday where he urged the members of the committee to show more flexibility. "It feels as if people continue to try to stick with their rigid positions rather than solve the problem," he said.

"There's no magic formula. There are no magic beans that you can toss on the ground and suddenly a bunch of money grows on trees," Obama added. "We got to just go ahead and do the responsible thing."

Despite some concessions, the two sides remain divided over the same basic issues that thwarted earlier deficit reduction efforts — finding a mutually agreeable blend of tax increases and cuts in the largest government benefit programs.

Democrats on the supercommittee say they are willing to make significant reductions in programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid only after Republicans agree to higher tax revenue, including a larger bite out of the income of the wealthy.

Republicans say that the soaring deficits result from too much spending, and not from a shortage of revenue to the Treasury, and tax increases would crimp efforts to create jobs.

In an offer they said marked a significant concession, GOP members on the panel offered last week to raise taxes by $250 billion over a decade as part of an overhaul of the tax code that simultaneously would cut the top rate from 35 percent to 28 percent.

Democrats swiftly rejected that as a tax cut for the wealthy in disguise, and separately jettisoned an earlier proposal that would have slowed the growth in cost of living increases under Social Security.

There has been little, if any, indication of progress in the talks since then.

But Hensarling seemed to suggest in an interview Sunday that the two parties could find a way around the fast-approaching Thanksgiving deadline by coming to a general understanding with respect to raising new revenue, without actually having to agree on a process or specific remedy.

"There could be a two-step process that would hopefully give us pro-growth tax reform, which by the way, every other bipartisan effort that has said that some revenues have to be raised in this method," he told CNN in an interview. "That is again broaden the base, historically this is how we both produce jobs and more revenues for the government."

For the most part, however, officials in both parties seem to be positioning themselves publicly for political advantage in case the talks falter.

Hensarling said the panel has a goal of cutting deficits by $1.2 trillion, but added it also has a duty.

"The duty is to put forth legislation that actually addresses long-term structural debt. Now the president himself has said that the drivers of our debt are Medicare, Medicaid and health care. Nothing else comes close," he said, adding that Republicans have done that.

But Obama described the situation differently at a news conference after wrapping up an economic summit with leaders of Pacific-region nations.

"If we've got to raise money, it makes sense for us to start by asking the wealthiest among us to pay a little bit more before we start asking seniors, for example, to pay a lot more for their Medicare," he said.

Nor do the two sides agree about a fallback plan already in place to make sure deficits are reduced even if the panel fails to reach an agreement.

Obama said twice over the weekend Congress shouldn't count on being able to change the automatic spending cuts that would take effect beginning on Jan. 1, 2013.

About $450 billion in cuts would come from defense and the same amount from domestic accounts, with savings on interest payments making up the balance of a $1.2 trillion total.

Republicans, joined by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, say the Pentagon couldn't sustain reductions of that magnitude, and Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., said there would be a "lively debate" in Congress on changing which programs the cuts would affect.

Clyburn and Toomey appeared on Fox. Hensarling was interviewed on CNN.

_____

AP reporter Erica Werner in Hawaii contributed to this story.


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2011/10/04

US Supreme Court opens, likely to wade into health care debate (The Christian Science Monitor)

Washington – The 2011-2012 US Supreme Court term, set to begin Monday, is best described by a case that isn’t even on the docket yet.

It now seems inevitable that the justices will agree to hear the legal challenge to President Obama’s health care reform law, the Affordable Care Act.

The case, HHS v. Florida, would instantly transform the high court’s upcoming nine-month session from an interesting and important collection of legal disputes into an historic constitutional showdown with major political implications – in a presidential election year.

MONITOR QUIZ: Weekly News Quiz for Sept. 25-30, 2011

The legal challenge threatens one of President Obama’s most ambitious accomplishments, the attempted wholesale reformation of the health care insurance market to extend health insurance to millions of Americans who otherwise couldn’t afford it.

Usually, the Supreme Courta€?s term is defined on the eve of the first Monday in October by the array of cases the justices have already agreed to hear and decide.

The unusual feature of the start of this year’s term is that the “Obamacare” case isn’t the only blockbuster looming on the high court’s horizon. In the weeks ahead, the justices are set to consider taking up a string of other potential landmark cases that could further transform the new term into a clash of constitutional titans. They include disputes examining:

‧ Whether the Second Amendment protects a right to carry a gun in public places for self-defense.

‧ Whether the use of racial preferences in university admissions programs is unconstitutional.

‧ Whether Arizona’s tough immigration law, SB 1070, is preempted by federal statutes and the more gentle policy positions embraced by the Obama administration.

‧ Whether large crosses erected on public roadsides in Utah and a Ten Commandments display in an elected judge’s courtroom in Ohio violate the separation of church and state.

Bleeping dirty words on TVIn addition to that unprecedented cluster of potential mega-cases, the high court is already set to hear a dispute involving the power of the Federal Communications Commission to punish broadcast television stations for showing brief nudity or failing to bleep dirty words during prime time programming.

The case, FCC v. Fox Television, will examine whether the FCC’s indecency enforcement procedures violate the First and Fifth Amendments. At issue is the government’s attempt to police the public air waves to prevent not only obscene material, but also indecent communications offensive to a family-oriented audience.

The current indecency enforcement effort stems from a 1978 high court decision that upheld sanctions against stations that broadcast comedian George Carlin’s famous routine on the seven dirty words you can’t say on the public air waves.

For years, the FCC enforced a policy against the systematic and repeated use of offensive words, most of which had been identified – effectively and repeatedly – by Mr. Carlin.

In 2001, the FCC changed course. It began enforcing a prohibition not just on systematic indecency but also on the use of fleeting expletives – dirty words blurted out during a prime time program. Several celebrities during music award programs on Fox used the “F-word,” and the “S-word.” In addition, an episode of ABC’s NYPD Blue featured a scene revealing a woman’s bare buttocks.

The FCC declared the programs “indecent.”

The broadcasters fought back with a lawsuit, claiming the FCC’s censorship was ill-defined and difficult to decipher. The Second US Circuit Court of Appeals in New York agreed and struck down the FCC’s policy as unconstitutionally vague.

The government defends the FCC policy, noting that broadcasters had been given fair notice.

Legal analysts are watching the case to see if the court uses it to affirm traditional indecency standards or instead requires a more permissive policy in light of widespread use of the Internet and cable television.

“I think the thing that will interest the court most is just the prospect of chilling” and whether the FCC policy provides the requisite degree of clarity, John Elwood, an appellate specialist and former law clerk to Justice Anthony Kennedy, told a recent briefing at the National Chamber Litigation Center.

“One thing that makes [Justice Kennedy] really passionate, is will people know whether they can broadcast something,” Mr. Elwood said. “If it is a close question whether you can broadcast Schindler’s List because there are naked people in concentration camps, that is going to give him a lot of heartburn.”

In an important case involving the First Amendment’s separation of church and state, the justices will consider whether a former teacher at a Lutheran elementary school can sue the church-run school for alleged disability discrimination and retaliation.

The case is Hosanna-Tabor Evangelical Lutheran Church and School v. EEOC and Cheryl Perich.

School officials argue that the lawsuit is barred under the “ministerial exception,” a legal doctrine which blocks employment-related lawsuits against religious organizations filed by employees who perform important religious functions.

The ministerial exception is designed to insulate religious groups from interference and second-guessing by judges and others about how the group is carrying out its religious mission. It applies to pastors, priests, and rabbis.

The issue in the Lutheran school case is whether it also applies to a teacher who spent most of her day presenting a secular curriculum to her students, but who also was a “commissioned minister” who taught religious classes and led the children in prayer.

Douglas Laycock, a University of Virginia law professor representing the Lutheran school, says the case could trigger “a revolution in relations between church and state.”

“The ministerial exception is limited to employees who perform functions important to the employer’s religious mission,” he writes in his brief to the court. He says the teacher was dismissed for violating church rules and that the courts cannot decide her claim without becoming involved in underlying religious disputes.

“Allowing her claim to go forward would leave the church unable to control who teaches the faith to the next generation,” Mr. Laycock writes.

Lawyers for the teacher counter that generally applicable anti-discrimination laws are fully enforceable and “need not give way to religious exercise.”

The teacher is not asking any court to take sides in a religious dispute, her lawyers say. Rather, she merely seeks a determination of whether her dismissal violated generally applicable provisions of a federal anti-discrimination law.

The disputed status of JerusalemIn Zivotofsky v. Clinton, the high court will wade into a clash between Congress and the executive branch over a sensitive matter of foreign affairs – the disputed status of Jerusalem.

Because Jerusalem is a disputed territory and a major source of disagreement in Middle East peace talks, the US government has tried to remain neutral on the Jerusalem issue.

As a result, children born in Jerusalem to US citizens are listed on birth documents as having been born in Jerusalem. No country is noted on the State Department documents.

Pro-Israeli members of Congress who disagree with this neutral posture, sponsored and passed a law directing the State Department to record the place of birth as Jerusalem, Israel.

The issue came to a head following the birth of Menachem Zivotofsky, a US citizen, in Jerusalem. His mother applied for a passport for her infant son and asked that the place of birth be recorded as Jerusalem, Israel. When the State Department refused, the parents sued to enforce the federal statute.

A federal judge threw the case out, saying it presented a political question best left to the elected branches of government to iron out. The federal appeals court in Washington affirmed.

In agreeing to take up the parents’ case, the high court asked both parties to address an additional issue: Whether Congress’s Jerusalem law impermissibly infringes on the president’s power to recognize foreign sovereigns?

Neil Kinkopf, a law professor at Georgia State University, says the added question may telegraph a decision in the president’s favor.

During a recent Supreme Court preview briefing, Professor Kinkopf told the American Constitution Society that four of the nine justices had prior work experience arguing separation of powers issues on the side of the president.

They include Justices Elena Kagan, Antonin Scalia, Samuel Alito, and Chief Justice John Roberts.

This prior experience, he said, will “orient the court to look favorably on the president’s position.”

But Kinkopf warned, “The way they do it could have dramatic consequences because Congress has other powers and the president has other exclusive powers, like the commander-in-chief power.”

How the court resolves the Jerusalem issue could set the stage for larger confrontations, he says.

“Can Congress use its spending power to limit the way the president exercises the commander in chief power?” Kinkopf asks.

“Could Congress say to the president no money may be spent for military operations in Libya, or no money may be spent for a surge in Iraq,” he asked.

Two important Fourth Amendment cases are also high on the court’s docket this term.

In Florence v. Board of Chosen Freeholders, the justices have agreed to decide whether the government has the power to order the routine strip search of persons detained by law enforcement regardless of how minor the offense or any individual assessment of his or her likelihood to be carrying a weapon or contraband.

Tracking criminal suspects' carsThe court will also decide in United States v. Jones whether the Fourth Amendment allows law enforcement officials to install a GPS tracking device on a suspect’s car to conduct continuous round-the-clock surveillance without first obtaining a judicially-authorized warrant.

By far the most significant case of the term – and perhaps for a generation – will be the constitutional challenge to the Affordable Care Act.

Did Congress act within its commerce clause powers when it approved the ACA’s individual mandate?

The ACA requires every American to purchase a government-approved level of health insurance or pay a penalty.

Opponents say never before has the US government required citizens to purchase a private service or face punishment. Supporters say the measure is well within Congress’s power to regulate interstate commerce.

A panel at the Eleventh US Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta voted 2 to 1 to strike down the individual mandate as exceeding Congressional authority. A different panel at the Sixth Circuit in Cincinnati ruled that the mandate did not violate commerce clause restrictions. A third panel at the Fourth Circuit in Richmond threw the case out on other grounds.

“The federal government’s assertion of power, under the commerce clause … is unprecedented, lacks cognizable limits, and imperils our federalist structure,” the Eleventh Circuit majority declared.

In a brief urging the high court to take up the case, US Solicitor General Donald Verrilli said the Eleventh Circuit had jettisoned “the considered judgment of the elected branches of government – after years of study and deliberation – on how to address a crisis in the national health care market.”

He added: “The minimum coverage provision is squarely within Congress’s power to regulate interstate commerce, lay and collect taxes, and enact legislation.”

“The court of appeals’ contrary decision is fundamentally flawed and denies Congress the broad deference it is due in enacting laws to address the nation’s most pressing economic problems and set tax policy,” he wrote.

It is now up to the Supreme Court to resolve the disagreement. Initial briefs have already been filed. Reply briefs are expected by the end of the month. The court could announce in November whether it will hear the case, and which questions it will decide. A final decision could be expected by late June.

The ACA is one of the Obama administration’s greatest achievements – an attempt to fundamentally reshape the provision of health insurance nationwide. But it is also controversial. Attorneys general from 26 of the 50 states are co-litigants who urged the Eleventh Circuit to declare the law unconstitutional.

The reform effort has also split the nation. That division is expected to continue and deepen with each stage of the litigation extending well into the 2012 presidential campaign.

MONITOR QUIZ: Weekly News Quiz for Sept. 25-30, 2011

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2011/08/10

Goldman says QE3 likely after dovish Fed statement (Reuters)

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday a third round of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve is likely after the U.S. Federal Reserve promised to keep rates at extraordinarily low levels for at least two more years.

"We now see a greater-than-even chance that the FOMC will resume quantitative easing later this year or in early 2012. We have changed our call because today's statement suggests that the committee's reaction function to incoming economic news is more dovish than we had previously thought," Jan Hatzius, chief economist at the firm, said in a note.

The explicit commitment to keep policy rates low through mid-2013 and a bias to easing policy further were more aggressive than expected and resulted in Goldman penciling in QE3 after the previous $600 billion bond-purchase program ended in June.

Hatzius said he thought the fact that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke went ahead with a promise to keep rates low within a specific time frame despite three dissents in the policy-setting committee was a sign the rest of the central bank believe renewed easing is important.

(Reporting by Kevin Plumberg; Editing by Ramya Venugopal)


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2011/07/29

UK lawmakers likely to recall James Murdoch on hacking (Reuters)

LONDON (Reuters) – British lawmakers said on Friday it was likely they would recall News Corp's James Murdoch to clarify evidence on phone hacking he gave to a parliamentary committee following claims his testimony was "mistaken."

Parliament's Culture, Media and Sport Committee said it would write to Murdoch to ask for more details about evidence he gave earlier this month about hacking allegations at the News of the World tabloid that has shaken his father Rupert's media empire.

The two Murdochs, along with former News International chief executive Rebekah Brooks, appeared before the committee on July 19 when they were pressed about phone-hacking and payments to police by News of the World reporters.

"We are going to write to ask for further details on areas where evidence is disputed," said the committee's chairman John Whittingdale.

James Murdoch has already told the lawmakers he stands by his testimony in a letter dated July 22 and released by the committee on Friday.

While the committee voted against immediately recalling Murdoch, chairman of British newspaper arm News International, Whittingdale said it was likely he would be recalled at a later date over claims some of his original testimony was wrong.

Tom Crone, News International's former top legal officer, and Colin Myler, editor of the News of the World until it was shut down earlier this month, have disputed some of James Murdoch's evidence.

Murdoch said he had not been in possession of all the facts when he approved a large payout in 2008 to English soccer executive Gordon Taylor, one of the phone-hacking victims.

But in a statement, Myler and Crone said they had told him of a 2005 email which suggested phone hacking at the tabloid was more widespread than a single "rogue reporter," as News Corp had until recently maintained.

The paper's royal reporter Clive Goodman and private detective Glenn Mulcaire were jailed in 2007 for intercepting the voice messages of royal aides.

Whittingdale said the statement had "raised questions over some of the evidence that we have received" and they would also be contacting Crone and Myler.

ORAL EVIDENCE

"If they come up with statements which are quite plainly different to those given to the committee by James Murdoch, we will want to hear James Murdoch's response to that, and chances are that may well involve oral evidence again as well," he said.

Lawyers Harbottle and Lewis, who have also faced criticism over their role in an internal News International investigation into phone hacking in 2007, will also be asked by the committee for details of their work.

Later, Mulcaire issued a statement through his lawyer saying he was not acting on his own initiative when intercepting phone messages while in the pay of the newspaper.

"He (Mulcaire) was effectively employed by News of the World from 2002 to carry out his role as a private investigator ... he admits that his role did include phone hacking," the statement said.

"As an employee he acted on the instructions of others.

Any suggestion that he acted in such matters unilaterally is untrue," the statement added.

Allegations of hacking at News Corp's British newspapers, in particular reports that journalists accessed the voicemails of murder victims, have triggered a judicial inquiry and calls from some politicians to cap News Corp's media ownership.

It has already led to News Corp dropping its $12 billion bid for the 61 percent of pay-TV broadcaster BSkyB it does not own and put James Murdoch's position in the spotlight.

The board of BSkyB, which reported a better-than-expected 16 percent jump in full-year revenue to almost 6.6 billion pounds on Friday, voted unanimously on Thursday to keep James Murdoch as its chairman.

However some politicians are keen to keep up the pressure on News Corp and James Murdoch in particular.

"It's my view that Murdoch, Crone and Myler should have been invited today," said Labour lawmaker and Culture, Media and Sport Committee member Tom Watson.

"I understand from the decision we took that when we receive the evidence, no later than August 11, we are meeting the week after that to decide whether to invite them at that point."

Rupert Murdoch described his appearance before the committee as the "most humble day of my life." The 80-year-old's testimony was interrupted when a British protester threw a plate of foam at him during the hearing.

The attacker, Jonathan May-Bowles, a comedian who uses the name Jonnie Marbles, pleaded guilty to causing harassment, alarm or distress on Friday. [nL6E7IT0TF]

The phone-hacking scandal has barely been out of the headlines since it erupted at the start of the month and has engulfed the British establishment.

Baroness Buscombe, the head of the newspaper watchdog, the Press Complaints Commission, which has been heavily criticized for failing to address the issue, became the latest person to step down in the wake of the furor.

London's police chief Paul Stephenson and John Yates, Britain's most senior counter-terrorism officer, have already been forced to quit.

(Writing by Michael Holden and Tim Castle, Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)


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2011/07/26

U.S. likely to lose top rating, say economists: Reuters poll (Reuters)

WASHINGTON/LONDON (Reuters) – The United States will lose its top-notch AAA credit rating from at least one major rating agency, according to a Reuters poll that also found wrangling over the debt ceiling has already damaged the economy.

A small majority of economists -- 30 out of 53 -- surveyed over the past two days said the United States will lose its AAA credit rating from one of the three big ratings agencies -- Standard & Poor's, Moody's or Fitch.

Respondents saw a 20 percent chance of a new recession over the next year, a prospect that some economists say has been compounded by the acrimonious political fight over what is normally a procedural legislative vote on the debt.

Lawmakers have one week left to hash out a deficit-cutting plan without which Republicans in Congress have said they will not raise the legal $14.3 trillion debt limit, risking a potentially devastating government debt default in August.

"We believe that Congress will act with an 11th hour deal to raise the debt ceiling. However, the risk of that deal failing increases with each passing day," said Guy LeBas, director at Janney Capital Markets.

"I would say that the chance of a U.S. ratings downgrade is now more likely than not."

Economists still see the probability of an outright default on U.S. Treasury bonds as remote -- 5 percent on median. But the average forecast was 13 percent, and estimates ranged from no chance at all to a 65 percent chance.

Downgrade and default would have vastly different consequences. A ratings cut might raise the risk of recession by hurting confidence, but might allow financial markets to muddle through the next few months without incident. A default, however, would send shockwaves through the global financial system that could kick-start a new financial crisis, say analysts.

Even if this worst-case scenario is not borne out, a firm majority of respondents -- 38 out of 54 -- said the uncertainty brought about by the political acrimony over the debt has already hurt economic growth.

The U.S. economy had already been under stress in recent months. Gross domestic product expanded just 1.9 percent in the first three months of the year, and the second quarter is not expected to have fared much better. Industrial production has slowed and employment nearly ground to a halt in the last two months. The jobless rate climbed to 9.2 percent in June.

"This whole debt ceiling debate doesn't seem to be making anyone any more confident," said Sean Incremona, economist at 4Cast Ltd. in New York.

Goldman Sachs argued in a research note recently that the decline in consumer sentiment over the last few months has been disproportionate to the economy's slowdown, pegging the debt battle as a culprit.

The government's first reading on GDP in the second quarter will be released on Friday.

(Reporting by Andy Bruce, Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Ruth Pitchford, Leslie Adler and Chizu Nomiyama)


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