Showing posts with label Recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Recession. Show all posts

2011/11/14

Wall St falls on euro zone recession worries (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Wall Street stocks declined on Monday as euro zone data signaled the region could be facing a recession, adding to worries about Europe's debt crisis.

Initial optimism about prospects of pro-growth reforms under new governments in Italy and Greece gave way to caution over the huge debt problems still plaguing the euro, which fell against the U.S. dollar.

Industrial production in the euro zone fell in September, the most since early 2009, adding to fears of a sharp contraction by industry and a probable recession. Output at factories in the 17-nation group fell 2.0 percent for the month.

"We are not an island. We are dependent ... and Europe's not likely to escape a recession," said Steve Goldman, principal at Goldman Management in Short Hills, New Jersey.

"You're seeing further weakness in the banks, and that's acting as a drag," he said.

Financials led the decline on the S&P 500, with the S&P financial index down 1.8 percent. Bank of America shares were down 2.3 percent at $6.07.

Stocks have traded choppily and in tandem with the euro recently in a sign U.S. investors are taking cues from the euro zone's mushrooming debt crisis as bouts of risk aversion are followed by periods of relative optimism.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 103.80 points, or 0.85 percent, at 12,049.88. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 15.46 points, or 1.22 percent, at 1,248.39. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 26.79 points, or 1.00 percent, at 2,651.96.

Limiting losses on the Dow, Boeing Co shares rose 1.9 percent to $68.20 after the U.S. planemaker announced an order worth at least $18 billion and said the Middle East will need to recruit and train tens of thousands of new pilots to sustain a massive expansion in long-haul fleets.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch, additional reporting by Edward Krudy; Editing by Kenneth Barry)


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2011/10/08

Job gains ease recession fears but still weak (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Employers hired more workers than expected in September and job gains for the prior two months were revised higher, easing recession fears.

But the unemployment rate remained stuck at 9.1 percent for a third straight month, keeping pressure on President Barack Obama and the U.S. Federal Reserve to do more to spur the recovery.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 103,000 in September, the Labor Department said on Friday, but that included the return of 45,000 striking communications workers. Excluding those workers, employment increased by a meager 58,000.

"It underscores the belief that the economy has skirted a recession, but that's not to say it's out of the danger zone because there are significant risks out there," said Millan Mulraine, senior macro strategist at TD Securities in New York.

Job growth is still falling short of the pace needed to pull down unemployment, though the report had a firmer tenor than economists had expected. Hourly earnings rebounded, the length of the average work week rose, and revisions showed 99,000 more jobs were added in July and August than initially reported.

The unemployment rate also managed to hold steady despite a surge of new workers into the labor force.

U.S. stocks snapped a three-day rally as a downgrade of Spain and Italy's credit ratings overshadowed the jobs report. Treasury debt prices fell for a fourth straight day, while the dollar rose marginally against a basket of currencies.

Economists had expected payrolls to increase 60,000 last month, with the jobless rate steady at 9.1 percent. Employment growth has decelerated sharply from the first quarter of the year, when payroll growth averaged more than 165,000 a month.

The weak labor market poses a critical challenge for Obama, who faces a tough battle to win reelection in November 2012.

Obama has proposed a package of measures to spur jobs growth, but the plan has run into stiff opposition from Republicans, raising the prospect Washington will be unable to take decisive action.

"It's anemic growth at best, and you don't see anything from this administration that's going to turn it around," Rick Santorum, a former senator and a former Republican presidential hopeful, said on CNBC.

White House officials conceded the jobs growth was not good enough.

"I would not say that we are satisfied in the slightest," National Economic Council Director Gene Sperling told Reuters Insider. "There still is a risk that this economy could stall out or even have a double-dip recession."

The U.S. economy needs to grow by at least a 2.5 percent annual rate, with payrolls expanding by around 125,000 positions a month, just to keep the jobless rate from rising.

RECESSION WATCH

Health care, construction, retail, and professional and business services all contributed to the rise in payrolls, while manufacturing was a drag for a second straight month.

The closely watched report was the latest sign to suggest the world's largest economy was likely to skirt a recession despite weakness over the summer, although prospects for the nation's 14 million unemployed remained grim.

Private employment increased 137,000 last month, an acceleration from August's mere 42,000. But government payrolls fell 34,000 as employment at the local government level fell 35,000 and the Postal Service shed 5,000 positions.

The drop in local government payrolls included a loss of 24,400 education jobs.

Recent reports on manufacturing, business spending and auto sales suggest the economy fared better in the third quarter after growing at an anemic 1.3 percent annual pace in the April-June period, although job growth did not pick up.

Analysts warn that the economy is still not out of the woods, with Europe's debt crisis posing a threat that could derail the U.S. recovery. Industrial output in Germany -- Europe's biggest economy -- fell in August.

PUSHING ON A STRING

The Federal Reserve last month announced new steps to breathe life into the recovery by pushing long-term borrowing costs lower, but economists do not expect the effort to bear much fruit at a time many Americans are unable to access credit.

U.S. consumer credit fell by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years in August, the Fed said in a separate report, confirming the retrenchment by households whose confidence was damaged by a wrenching political fight over the U.S. deficit and steep stock price drops.

Uncertainty over the economic outlook has made businesses reluctant to hire aggressively.

"One of the main problems in the economy is the lack of confidence in economic policies here and in Europe," said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University in the Channel Islands. "Most of the cards have been dealt and the politicians have been squabbling among themselves."

While the jobless rate held steady last month, other measures of unemployment grew darker.

The average duration of unemployment hit a record high of 40.5 weeks. and almost 45 percent of the 14 million jobless Americans had been out of work for six months or more, up from 42.9 percent in August.

In addition, a broader measure of unemployment that includes people who want to work but have given up looking for jobs and those working only part time for economic reasons rose to 16.5 percent from 16.2 percent.

But there were also some bright spots.

Hourly earnings rose 4 cents after falling in August; the length of the work week rose to 34.3 hours from 34.2 hours; and job gains were widespread.

Health care and social services payrolls increased by 40,800 jobs, construction added 26,000 workers -- possibly due to rebuilding after Hurricane Irene -- and temporary employment rose 19,400. Temporary hiring is sometimes seen as a harbinger of permanent hiring.

But manufacturing, which has been the pillar of the economy, shed 13,000 jobs, the second straight monthly decline.

(Additional reporting by Mark Felsenthal in Washington; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Leslie Adler)


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2011/10/04

September auto sales up, allaying fears of recession (Reuters)

DETROIT (Reuters) – Major automakers posted double-digit percentage U.S. sales gains for September in a rebound that General Motors Co said showed the economy was likely to steer clear of a double-dip recession.

Among the Detroit automakers, GM sales rose 20 percent, while Ford's rose 9 percent and Chrysler Group was up 27 percent. Nissan Motor Co saw a sales gain of 25 percent and Volkswagen AG posted a sales increase of 36 percent.

The initial sales reports put industrywide sales on track to near 13 million vehicles on an annualized basis, at the high end of the range of analysts' forecasts.

That would represent the strongest sales pace since April and an increase of roughly 10 percent from the sales rate of September 2010.

Last month's auto sales were bolstered by increased inventory levels for Japanese automakers that had been depleted through the summer, by steady gasoline prices and a trickle back of demand from customers looking to replace aging vehicles, executives and analysts said.

GM sales chief Don Johnson said the September auto sales and other recent economic data "all point to a slow growth scenario but not a double dip."

GM kept its forecast for industrywide auto sales unchanged and said it expected to see increasing sales in October through December.

The top U.S. automaker forecasts overall U.S. vehicle sales of at least 13 million, including medium and heavy duty trucks. That would be up from the sales rate of 12.8 million on that basis in the year to date.

In another indicator of economic resilience, U.S. factory activity expanded at a faster pace than expected in September, the Institute for Supply Management said on Monday.

VW America Chief Executive Jonathan Browning said the September sales results pointed to a moderate increase in U.S. auto sales through the remainder of the year.

"It's hard to give a very simple summary because a lot of people are anxious about the future and you see that in the consumer sentiment, consumer confidence surveys, but at the same time many people are recognizing that this is a good time to buy," he said.

U.S. auto sales represent one of the earliest snapshots of consumer demand.

GM shares were up 1 percent at $20.41 around midday and Ford Motor Co shares were flat at $9.67.

CHRYSLER'S BEST SEPT. SINCE 2007

Chrysler, the No. 3 U.S. automaker, had its best performance for September since 2007. Chrysler is managed and primarily owned by Italy's Fiat SpA.

Stronger showings by Toyota Motor Corp and Honda Motor Co are expected, after the top two Japanese automakers in the U.S. market have returned to full production after having inventories slimmed after the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

During the past summer -- typically a busy sales period -- some consumers had held back from shopping for vehicles because the major Japanese automakers had an unusually spare stock of cars on dealer lots.

"A vehicle in content and color isn't something people are likely to compromise. They're more likely to wait. Now this is a release of some pent-up demand, which is exactly what we want to see," said IHS analyst Rebecca Lindland.

Both Toyota and Honda also increased sales incentives in September to lure back consumers, analysts have said.

U.S. new light vehicle auto sales were averaging 13.1 million on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in the first four months of the year. A diminished supply of vehicles and auto parts began to cut into sales beginning in May.

The annualized sales rate dipped to 11.8 million vehicles from May to August.

Analyst Peter Nesvold of Jefferies & Co said last week that September will be the first month since April not to reflect the effects of the Japanese earthquake and the resulting production disruption.

J.D. Power & Associates as well as Edmunds.com forecast that September sales will be 12.9 million vehicles on the seasonally adjusted annualized basis the industry uses to monitor sales strength.

Before the industry downturn during the recent recession, U.S. also sales averaged nearly 17 million vehicles a year. Sales began to fall in 2008 and by 2009 hit the lowest level since the early 1980s, at 10.4 million vehicles sold.

(Reporting by Bernie Woodall and Ben Klayman, writing by Kevin Krolicki, editing by Matthew Lewis)


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2011/09/14

Flat retail sales keeps U.S. on recession watch (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Growth in U.S. retail sales stalled in August after a spending battle in Congress crushed consumer sentiment, leaving the economy perched uncomfortably close to recession.

The weak data puts more pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to try to boost growth, while a report showing flat wholesale prices in August could support arguments within the central bank to take action.

"The slowdown in the economy is real," said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities in New York. "It's a broad-based slowdown, and that's pivotal."

Retail sales were unchanged last month from July, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. The government also lowered previous estimates for growth during June and July.

The data was the latest hard evidence the United States is flirting with recession. Other reports have shown there was no employment growth in August, while claims for jobless benefits rose in early September.

Consumer confidence plunged last month after a battle over the deficit slammed stock prices and pushed the nation to the brink of default. The country's debt was then downgraded.

"The consumer reacted to the debt ceiling (argument), the downgrade and the equity market swoon by basically hunkering down and not spending," said Tom Porcelli, senior U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York.

Citing the weak data, Nomura cut its forecast for third-quarter economic growth to 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent.

However, major U.S. stock indexes shook off the data and rose after the head of the European Commission said he would soon present options for the introduction of euro area bonds, which could help the region fight its debt crisis.

RECESSION FEARS

Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and the retail sales figures showed spending during the first two months of the third quarter was weaker than many forecasters expected.

An increase in sales of electronics, gasoline and food was balanced with drops in purchases of cars, furniture and clothes. Spending at restaurants and bars also dipped.

A gauge that hews most closely to the measure the government uses in calculating GDP rose just 0.1 percent.

A Reuters poll released on Wednesday found economists see a nearly one-in-three chance the United States could re-enter recession. Many economists expect the Fed will unveil new measures to boost growth next Tuesday following a two-day meeting.

U.S. households still feel the pain from the country's 2007-2009 recession. A report on Tuesday showed the U.S. poverty rate -- already the highest in the developed world -- rose last year to 15.1 percent, its highest level since 1993.

Companies are also feeling the pinch. Best Buy Co cut its profit outlook for the year on Tuesday, citing economic uncertainty.

Policymakers are struggling to counter the weakness.

President Barack Obama is lobbying Congress to approve his recently unveiled job stimulus program but opposition Republicans have harshly criticized parts of the plan.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has hinted at further monetary stimulus, although three policymakers within the central bank last month dissented over a pledge to keep interest rates low into 2013.

A separate report on Wednesday from the Labor Department showed prices received by U.S. producers were unchanged in August, held down by a drop in energy costs. That could help keep inflation from being an immediate roadblock to further monetary stimulus.

Another report from the Commerce Department showed U.S. business inventories rose slightly less than expected in July, suggesting firms remained cautious about future demand.

Economic growth slowed sharply during the first half of the year, leaving the economy vulnerable to potential shocks like an escalation of Europe's debt crisis.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urged Europe to move more aggressively to solve its troubles, but said it has the financial and economic capacity to do so.

(Additional reporting by Mark Felsenthal in Washington and Richard Leong and Emily Flitter in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci, Neil Stempleman and Dan Grebler)

(jason.lange@thomsonreuters.com; +1 202 310 5487; Reuters Messaging: jason.lange.reuters.com@reuters.net))


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2011/09/03

Job growth stalls, fuels recession fears (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Employment growth ground to a halt in August, reviving recession fears and piling pressure on both President Barack Obama and the Federal Reserve to provide more stimulus to aid the frail economy.

For the first time in nearly a year the economy failed to create new jobs on a net basis according to the Labor Department's monthly nonfarm payrolls survey on Friday.

Economists had expected nonfarm employment to rise 75,000 last month but they cautioned against viewing the data as a surefire sign of recession.

A worsening debt crisis in Europe and an acrimonious political fight over the government budget and debt, which led Standard & Poor's to strip the country of its AAA credit rating, ignited a massive stock market sell-off last month and sent business and consumer confidence tumbling.

"The economy is struggling against stiff headwinds, which appear to have intensified in recent months," said Millan Mulraine, senior macro strategist at TD Securities in New York. "While it has clearly not fallen off the cliff, there is little to suggest it is anywhere close to regaining its momentum."

Investors fled riskier assets on the news, sending stocks tumbling, pushing up the price of gold, and lowering U.S. Treasury bond yields.

Employment was dampened by 45,000 striking workers at Verizon Communications. Those workers have since returned to work and will be counted as on the payroll in September.

But even taking that into account the report was largely bleak. The unemployment rate, however, held at 9.1 percent as a survey of households found both job growth and, for the first time in a year, an expanding labor force.

With the jobless rate stuck above 9.0 percent and confidence collapsing, President Barack Obama faces pressure to come up with ways to spur job creation. The health of the labor market could determine whether he wins re-election next year.

Obama will lay out a new jobs plan in a speech to the nation on Thursday, and White House advisers said the data underscored a need for action.

"He will be very specific about what we can do that can have a meaningful impact on job growth in the economy right away," Gene Sperling, a top economic adviser to Obama, told Reuters Insider.

Obama on Friday withdrew new rules to limit smog pollution that businesses had argued would kill jobs and cost them billions of dollars.

The Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, John Boehner, said in a statement it was time for political cooperation "to end the uncertainty facing families and small businesses, and create a better environment for long-term economic growth."

But speaking later to reporters in Ohio, Boehner struck a combative tone toward the White House and Senate Democrats. "They want to push for the same kind of agenda -- more stimulus spending and short-term gimmicks, higher taxes, more regulations. We've seen more of this before and it has failed."

EYES ON THE FED

Despite massive cash injections by both the government and the Fed, sustainable job growth has eluded the economy.

"The entire recovery has been a recovery in name only. The Achilles heel ... has always been the lack of job creation," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.

The data could strengthen the hand of officials at the Fed who wanted to do more to help the sputtering economy in August. The economy needs to generate about 150,000 jobs each month just to keep the unemployment rate steady over time.

The central bank, which meets on September 20-21, cut overnight interest rates to near zero in December 2008 and has bought $2.3 trillion in securities to inject cash into the economy.

Despite simmering inflation pressures, many economists expect the Fed to launch a third round of bond buying soon to put downward pressure on long-term rates, partly because the federal government appears intent on belt-tightening.

"Even the inflation hawks have to be concerned by this report," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. "With fiscal policy at all levels of government restraining growth, the Fed is the only game in town."

Expectations of further Fed action drove the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note below 2.0 percent. The U.S. dollar rose on safe-haven flows, while the S&P 500 stock index fell 2.53 percent.

UNDERLYING PACE OF JOB GROWTH WEAK

While employment was held back by the Verizon strike, the impact was offset somewhat by the return of 23,000 public employees in Minnesota after a partial government shutdown.

Stripping out both of those factors, employment would have expanded by more than 20,000 jobs last month and, without the strike, private payrolls would have increased by 62,000, instead of a paltry 17,000.

Still, the overall tenor of the report was decidedly weak.

Employers created a combined 58,000 fewer jobs in June and July than previously thought, and the length of the average workweek fell 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours, the fewest since January. In addition, average hourly earnings dropped three cents.

About 43 percent of the 14 million Americans unemployed in August had been out of work for at least six months. The jobless rate would have been 16.2 percent if people who want to work but have given up looking for jobs and those working only part time for economic reasons were counted.

Although hiring cooled, fairly steady readings on claims for jobless benefits, relatively strong consumer spending and continued demand for manufactured goods offer hope the economy will avoid recession.

Analysts say the economy should pick up steam from here, although they warn the recovery is so weak that any fresh shock could send it tumbling. In the first half of the year, the economy expanded at less than a 1.0 percent annual rate.

(Editing by Neil Stempleman and Tim Ahmann)


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2011/08/31

Data shows softening in economy, no recession (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The pace of U.S. private sector job growth slowed in August for the second month in a row, but factory activity in the Chicago area continued to expand, suggesting the economy would dodge a recession.

Private employers added 91,000 positions this month, payrolls processor ADP National Employment said on Wednesday, broadly in line with expectations.

Separately, the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said its business barometer fell to 56.5 in August, the lowest since November 2009, from 58.8 the month before.

Still, it was better than economists' forecasts for a reading of 53.5, and suggested that factory activity might not be slowing as fast as had been flagged by other regional manufacturing surveys.

Orders for manufactured goods increased 2.4 percent in July after a 0.4 percent fall in June, the Commerce Department said in a third report.

"For those of us who don't believe the economy is in a free fall, we have got some support, said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International in New York.

"It is consistent with the belief ... that manufacturing activity is advancing, but it is advancing unevenly across regions."

But the Institute for Supply Management's index of national manufacturing activity probably fell to 48.5 in August, according to a Reuters survey, from 50.9 in July. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in manufacturing.

The August ISM survey will be published on Thursday.

Major U.S. stock indexes added to gains after the factory data, while U.S. government debt prices fell. The dollar rose against the yen and the euro.

The ADP figures come ahead of the U.S. government's much more comprehensive labor market report on Friday, which includes both public and private sector employment.

While the ADP report has a poor track record of predicting the national nonfarm employment count, it suggested that businesses had not responded to the sharp stock market sell-off and loss of both business and consumer confidence this month by holding back on hiring.

Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased 75,000, according to a Reuters survey, slowing from July's 117,000 rise. The anticipated slowdown in payrolls growth will largely be the result of a strike at Verizon Communications.

"The non-farm payrolls figure is still likely to be a bit weaker because it will be affected by the strike by 45,000 Verizon workers last month," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

"The ADP survey counts people as employed as long as they were on the payroll, whereas the official payroll survey only counts people as employed if they were paid during their normal pay period that includes the 12th of the month."

While fears the economy is falling back into recession have increased this month, some of the recent data has been consistent with a slow-growth scenario rather than a contraction.

Slower than expected economic growth has fueled speculation the Federal Reserve could launch another round of bond buying -- known as quantitative easing -- but such a move would likely face political opposition both domestically and abroad.

A separate report earlier on Wednesday showed the number of planned layoffs at U.S. firms declined in August after rising for three months in a row, but the cuts were still up sharply from a year ago amid government job losses.

Employers announced 51,114 planned job cuts, down 23 percent from 66,414 in July, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. July's figure had been a 16-month high.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday applications for U.S. home mortgages tumbled last week as demand for refinancing sagged for the second week in a row.

(Reporting by Leah Schnurr and Lucia Mutikani)


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2011/08/29

Consumer spending data allays recession worries (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Consumer spending rose at its fastest pace in five months in July, a further sign the economy is not falling back into recession, although manufacturing activity in Texas almost stalled this month.

Consumer spending increased 0.8 percent on strong demand for motor vehicles as Japan-related supply restraints faded, a Commerce Department report showed on Monday. Spending had slipped 0.1 percent in June

The size of the bounceback in spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, beat economists' forecasts for a 0.5 percent advance. When adjusted for inflation, spending was up 0.5 percent last month, the largest gain in 1-1/2 years and the first increase since April.

"It's a little far-fetched to truly believe that we are headed into another recession. This data doesn't support that view at all," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania.

The spending data was the latest to suggest the economy started the third quarter with some strength after growth slowed to a near halt in the first half of the year.

But the risks of a new recession have risen this month as stock prices plunged and consumer sentiment eroded.

The spending report showed inflation-adjusted after-tax incomes fell in July, while data from the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank indicated factory output in Texas ground to a near halt this month.

The Texas factory index dropped to 1.1 from 10.8 in July, while a business confidence gauge slid to -11.4 from -2.0. The decline in sentiment was in line with other recent regional manufacturing surveys. In these indexes, zero is the dividing line between growth and contraction.

Separately, the number of contracts signed for purchases of previously owned homes fell 1.3 percent last month. The housing market is being choked by an oversupply of properties.

Pending home sales usually lead existing home sales by a month or two and the decline in contracts signed pointed to a fall in August sales.

Investors focused on the spending data and bought U.S. stocks. Prices for U.S. government debt fell, while the dollar eased against a basket of currencies.

ECONOMY NOT FALLING APART

So far data from industrial production to retail sales and employment have been consistent with a slow-growth scenario rather than an outright contraction in economic output. Data for August will give an idea of how much damage the stock market turmoil inflicted on the already wounded economy.

The economy grew at a tepid 1 percent annual rate in the second quarter, with consumer spending rising at its weakest pace since the fourth quarter of 2009. The economy only expanded 0.4 percent in the first three months of the year

Some economists were skeptical the rise spending last month would be sustained, given the 0.1 percent decline in real disposable income, weak consumer confidence and still-sluggish job growth.

"My expectation is that August spending number retreats and income likewise will be flat due to very weak job creation," said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica in Dallas, Texas.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls likely increased 75,000 in August after rising 117,000 in July, according to a Reuters survey. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 9.1 percent.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke left the door open for further monetary stimulus in a speech on Friday in which he said bringing down the high level of joblessness was crucial to ensuring the economy's long-term health.

Although the spending report showed core inflation moving higher, analysts did not think this would tie the U.S. central bank's hands.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out food and energy costs -- rose 0.2 percent for a second straight month, taking the year-on-year reading to 1.6 percent, the highest since May 2010, from 1.4 percent in June.

Overall inflation jumped 0.4 percent in July after dropping 0.1 percent in June.

"This does not rule out additional Fed stimulus when policymakers meet in September. But it doesn't exactly rule it in," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in New York.


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2011/08/19

PIMCO: Treasury market reflects likelihood of recession (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund, said on Friday the rally in Treasury yields to 60-year lows reflect a high probability of recession in the United States.

Gross, the co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees $1.2 trillion, also told Reuters Insider television it is apparent that policy options are limited.

"It is increasingly apparent to us that policy options are limited and that economic growth is slowing down," said Gross said. "There's no doubt that growth from the standpoint of employment or unemployment and growth from the standpoint of corporate profits is definitely a risk -- whether or not we see a positive 1 percent real GDP number I think is besides the point."

Gross said low Treasury yields are flashing recessionary conditions.

"They certainly reflect, in terms of their yields, not only a potential for a recession but the almost high probability of recession and the result of lowering inflation."

For more from the Interview, please click on http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/

(Reporting by Daniel Burns, Burton Frierson and Jennifer Ablan; Editing by Neil Stempleman)


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2011/08/05

July payrolls rise soothes recession fears (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. job growth accelerated more than expected in July, tamping down fears the economy was sliding into a fresh recession and giving the Federal Reserve some breathing room.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 117,000 after slowing abruptly in the past two months, Labor Department data showed on Friday. The rise beat economists' expectations for an 85,000 gain.

The unemployment rate dipped to 9.1 percent from 9.2 percent in June, but that was because discouraged job-seekers gave up the hunt. Still, the report was heartening after a rush of disappointing data over the past week.

"This shows that the U.S. economy is not dead yet. We have potential to get back on track with moderate growth to a strong recovery next year," said Kurt Karl, head of economic research and consulting at Swiss Re in New York.

The payrolls count for May and June was revised to show 56,000 more jobs were added in those months than previously reported, helping to improve the tenor of the report.

High commodity prices and supply chain disruptions from Japan knocked the recovery off course in the first half of year and left the economy vulnerable to another downturn just two years after the worst U.S. recession since the 1930s ended.

Some economists have put the odds of a new slump as high as 40 percent.

U.S. recession fears and Europe's inability to tame its spreading debt crisis have roiled world financial markets. The data initially helped temper losses in global stocks, which were down for an eight straight day, before worry quickly took hold again.

Stocks on Wall Street opened higher, but gave up gains to trade lower by late morning. Prices for U.S. Treasury debt fell, while the dollar weakened broadly as investors showed a little more appetite for risk-taking. However, gold prices rose in a sign risk-aversion had far from fully dissipated.

UGLY DEBT FIGHT

While private employers showed a renewed appetite to hire last month, there are worries their enthusiasm might have been dampened by the ugly fight between Democrats and Republicans during talks to raise the country's debt ceiling.

Analysts fear this could hamper job growth in August.

"The fight over the debt ceiling created a new climate filled with uncertainty and anxiety that will cause businesses to change their clothes, so to speak, and either reduce hiring, freeze hiring, or cut payrolls," said Tony Crescenzi, portfolio manager at PIMCO in Newport Beach, California.

The private sector accounted for all the jobs created in July, with business payrolls rising 154,000 -- an acceleration from June's 80,000 increase and more than the 115,000 expected by economists. Government payrolls dropped 37,000, a ninth straight monthly decline.

The economy's poor health has eroded President Barack Obama's popularity among Americans and could hurt his chances of reelection.

Speaking to veterans at Washington's Navy Yard, Obama called on Congress to take steps to help the economy when lawmakers return from a summer break in September -- renewing his call for an extension of a payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment benefits.

"There is no doubt that this has been a tumultuous year. We are going to get through this, things will get better and we will get there together," he said.

Opposition Republican lawmakers renewed calls to cut government spending and ease the regulatory burden on businesses as a prescription for the economy's ills.

The nation's borrowing limit was raised this week in a deal that relied on spending cuts. The fiscal tightening comes at a time when the Fed has a limited arsenal to defend the economy.

The U.S. central bank has cut interest rates to zero and spent $2.3 trillion on bonds. Policymakers, who meet on Tuesday, have said they want to see how the economy fares before taking any further action, and the data fit with their forecasts for a pickup in growth.

Economists say the budget cuts and the scheduled expiration of the payroll tax cut and emergency jobless aid could cut more than a percentage point from GDP growth next year.

EYES ON FED

With looming budget cuts at the federal government level, and state and local governments still tightening their belts, the burden of job creation falls on the private sector.

"The public sector job cutbacks are a real drag on growth and the debt ceiling agreement makes it clear that belt tightening will continue to restrain activity for a long time," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania.

"Monetary policy will have to lean against that headwind and that means the (Fed) could signal next week that it is prepared to keep rates low for a longer period of time than had been expected."

With exception of government, job gains were spread across the board last month. Manufacturing payrolls rose 24,000 after increasing 11,000 in June. Most the gains came from the auto sector. Construction employment increased 8,000 after dropping 5,000 in June.

Temporary help jobs rose marginally, breaking a string of three consecutive declines in a hint that more permanent hiring may be in store.

The average workweek was steady at 34.3 hours, but average hourly earnings rose a strong 10 cents.

(Additional reporting by Donna Smith and Jeff Mason in Washington; Editing by Andrea Ricci)


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Analysis: Recession II? Probably not, staffing execs say (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) – A sequel to the Great Recession in the United States just two years after the downturn is not likely because demand for temporary workers, a leading indicator of both upturns and downturns, remains steady, staffing industry executives say.

In the prior economic slowdown, demand for temps turned lower months before the recession officially began. That is not happening now. A second recession cannot be ruled out, but current evidence, including stronger-than-expected July jobs growth, suggests a slow, cautious recovery remains in place.

"If we were headed for a recession, we would see clients letting go of large numbers of temporary employees," said Tig Gilliam, who heads North American operations for Swiss-based Adecco SA, the world's largest staffing company.

"It's not happening," he said. "You don't see those signs that say we're headed for a double dip."

The U.S. economy added 117,000 jobs outside the farm sector last month and the unemployment rate dipped to 9.1 percent. More jobs were added in May and June than initially reported, the government said on Friday. [ID:nOAT004847]

Private sector jobs creation also exceeded estimates. New jobs in factories, construction and retail helped offset an expected decline in government-sector positions.

Friday's report helped ease some anxiety about the direction of the U.S. economy, which has dragged down stock prices in recent weeks. It follows disappointing economic data on demand for capital goods, the manufacturing and service sectors, and anemic GDP growth.

More than $1 trillion in stock market losses may further hurt consumer confidence, Gilliam said, as Americans are tempted to save more, slowing the recovery. Government job losses caused by budget cuts will remain a headwind.

Economic uncertainty supports demand for temps, but employers lack the confidence that could spur broader hiring.

"We still see clients hiring but the decision process is slower than it was in the first quarter," he said. "It looks like we'll just keep bouncing along here. We are still going to see selective hiring but not at a volume that is going to significantly turn around the consumer spending situation."

CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM

While layoff reports have continued to dominate the job-related news in the United States over the past few weeks -- with companies including drugmaker Merck & Co and liquidating bookstore chain Borders Group Inc announcing plans to cut thousands of jobs -- some companies have begun to talk about adding workers.

In the tech sector, for instance, Google Inc boosted its headcount by about 9 percent -- some 2,450 workers -- in the second quarter, though not all those jobs were added in the United States. Railroads have also been boosting their ranks, with both Union Pacific Corp and CSX Corp saying they plan to add workers this year in reaction to growing volume on their lines.

Manufacturers that cut staff during the downturn have also started to add back, with both General Electric Co and Caterpillar Inc adding U.S. hourly workers.

Johnson Controls' building efficiency unit has added 4,000 U.S. jobs this year, said Dave Myers, president of the business that retrofits buildings to cut their energy use. including New York's iconic Empire State Building.

"In our markets, we have a lot of confidence in continuing to grow. You're going to see a lot of industries with strong replacement (demand) and many will continue to invest, (like) healthcare." Myers said. "I'm an optimist."

'SOFT PATCH' OR RECESSION?

Staffing shares initially rallied on Friday's jobs data but, like the overall market, turned mixed. Shares of Manpower, the largest U.S.-listed staffing company and the world's No. 3, were down 2 percent at $42.41. TrueBlue Inc lost 0.9 percent. Kelly Services gained 1.2 percent, but Robert Half International lost 3.8 percent.

All the staffing shares are down 20 percent or more from their highs earlier this year.

"While the market seems to be pricing in a double dip, 'soft patches' such as these are fairly common during economic recoveries," BMO Capital Markets analyst Jeff Silber said in a note to clients.

In European trading, Randstad was flat, while Adecco was up 0.2 percent.

Shares of SFN Group Inc were flat. The company last month agreed to a takeover by Randstad of the Netherlands, the world's No. 2 staffing company, which will double its U.S. revenue with the deal.

The private sector has been steadily building jobs," said SFN CEO Roy Krause. "Clearly not enough to knock down unemployment, (but) growth is still growth, it's not a double-dip recession."

Krause said demand for temps in the manufacturing sector was "decent," and clients are looking for skilled technology professionals, accountants and engineers, in areas like food production and energy. The white-collar unemployment rate is about half of the national average, he added.

"Our business is still expanding -- admittedly slowly," Krause said. "You can't rule out (another recession), but there's no indication. You're not seeing temp jobs fall."

(Additional reporting by Scott Malone in Boston; Editing by Phil Berlowitz)


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2011/07/31

Obama adviser Sperling sees no "double dip" recession (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – White House economic adviser Gene Sperling said on "Fox News Sunday" he was "not worried the U.S. will have a double-dip recession" and urged Congress to approve an increase in the debt limit as a way to give certainty to financial markets.

Sperling said the debt uncertainty was "a self-inflicted wound" that contributed to lower U.S. economic growth as did external events including higher gasoline prices and the downturn in the U.S. auto industry in the first half of 2011.

(Reporting by Jackie Frank)


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2011/07/09

Black economic gains reversed in Great Recession (AP)

BALTIMORE – Growing up black in the segregated 1960s, Deborah Goldring slept two to a bed, got evicted from apartment after apartment, and watched her stepfather climb utility poles to turn their disconnected lights back on. Yet Goldring pulled herself out of poverty and earned a middle-class life — until the Great Recession.

First, Goldring's husband fell ill, and they drained savings to pay for nursing homes before he died. Then Goldring lost her executive assistant job in the Baltimore hospital where she had worked for 17 years. The cruelest blow was a letter from the bank, intending to foreclose on her home of almost three decades.

Millions of Americans endured similar financial calamities in the recession. But for Goldring and many others in the black community, where unemployment is still rising, job loss has knocked them out of the middle class and back into poverty. Some even see a historic reversal of hard-won economic gains that took black people decades to achieve.

Goldring remembers her mother taping the blinds to the wall so no one could see them stealing electricity. She remembers each time she sat on the curb with her three brothers, surrounded by her family's belongings, waiting for a new place to live. Sitting on those curbs, she promised to always pay her bills on time.

Now, after finding herself poor again, "the only word I can say is devastated," says Goldring, 58.

"For me to live that life we were so comfortable in, we never had to worry about finances, we always had money where I can help my kids and my grandchildren — to go to calling my daughter to borrow $100 because I can't pay a bill ..." Goldring's voice trails off as she struggles to hold back tears.

Economists say the Great Recession lasted from 2007 to 2009. In 2004, the median net worth of white households was $134,280, compared with $13,450 for black households, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data by the Economic Policy Institute. By 2009, the median net worth for white households had fallen 24 percent to $97,860; the median black net worth had fallen 83 percent to $2,170, according to the EPI.

Algernon Austin, director of the EPI's Program on Race, Ethnicity and the Economy, described the current wealth gap this way: "In 2009, for every dollar of wealth the average white household had, black households only had two cents."

Since the end of the recession, the overall unemployment rate has fallen from 9.4 to 9.1 percent, while the black unemployment rate has risen from 14.7 to 16.2 percent, according to the Department of Labor.

"I would say the recession is not over for black folks," Austin says. He believes more black people than ever before could fall out of the middle class, because the unemployment rate for college-educated blacks recently peaked and blacks are overrepresented in state and local government jobs that are being eliminated due to massive budget shortfalls.

Maya Wiley, director of the Center for Social Inclusion, says the anti-discrimination laws passed in the 1960s took decades to translate into an increase in black economic security — and that was before the recession.

"History is going to say that the black middle class was decimated" over the past few years, Wiley says. "But we're not done writing history."

___

Goldring was born and raised in Baltimore, and her mother was single for much of Goldring's childhood. At 16, she dropped out of school and went to work cleaning hotel rooms.

"That's when I first met white people. Some of them would stay a month at the hotel. They would have all their children with them," she remembers. "I thought, one day I'd like to hang out at a hotel."

She didn't know any middle-class people in her all-black neighborhood. "Where we lived, everyone struggled. We just struggled a little harder," she says. "If the lights stayed on for a whole year, if we didn't get put out, I thought we were doing really, really well."

At 21, pregnant with her second child, Goldring decided to get her GED. Then she went to community college, got a degree in secretarial work, and began a career.

She met her husband in 1983. He had a steady job as a heating and air-conditioning installer, and owned a brick two-bedroom home in Morgan Park, a leafy, integrated neighborhood.

With two incomes, money was not a problem. He liked to travel. She had never been out of Maryland.

"I thought, `Is this how rich people live?'" Goldring remembers. "From where I was to where I ended up, it was way different."

Her husband had been married before. As a condition of the divorce, his daughter's name was added to the deed of the house. After Goldring's husband died in 2007, Goldring took out a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, with a 6.5 percent interest rate, to purchase the house outright.

Everything was fine until her hospital "restructured" in 2009. Her boss, a senior vice president, was transferred to the corporate office. Executives were now sharing secretaries. A few months later, they let Goldring go.

No more family vacations. No more trips to the mall. No more filling the grocery cart.

But what Goldring misses the most is her checkbook. Her unemployment payments arrive on a debit card.

"Just being able to pull out my checkbook and pay a bill, even though there might not be much left in there," she says. "I really miss that checkbook with my name on it."

___

Last April, black male unemployment hit the highest rate since the government began keeping track in 1972. Only 56.9 percent of black men over age 20 were working, compared with 68.1 percent of white men.

Chris Wilder, a Philadelphia journalist, lost his job in 2008 as the media industry suffered huge losses. Unemployment benefits amounted to about one-third of his salary. Ever since they ran out, his income has been near zero, other than sporadic freelance work.

If not for a policy in his apartment co-op to assist people who lose their jobs, "I might be living with my mother," he says.

He has felt depression and anxiety. He's gone from a six-figure salary to having to check his balance before using his bank card. "I miss being able to go into a store and go off budget," he says. "Now, when I go to shop for something, I have to stick to exactly what I came to get. I never have money to buy anything else."

Wilder, 43, grew up solidly middle class, the son of a newspaper editor and a college administrator. Now the single parent of a 15-year-old, he has managed to keep his son in cleats and baseball camps, but thoughts of dying poor have crept into his mind. All of his savings are gone.

"It's definitely harder for black people to get jobs," Wilder says. "With the economy as bad as it is, people are hiring nephews and family friends and friends of friends. It's hard for black people to break that cycle. We don't own or even run the big companies."

"It's hard to keep jobs as well, because they're gonna `last hired/first fired' you," he adds.

Wilder isn't giving up on finding a job in his field, "but I should."

"I call everyone. I send resumes. It is extremely rare that I get a call back," he says. "When I was growing up, I never imagined there would be a time when I was out of work for three years."

College-educated blacks fared worse than their white counterparts in the recession. In 2007, unemployment for college-educated whites was 1.8 percent; for college-educated blacks it was 2.7 percent. Now, the college-educated unemployment rate is 3.9 percent for whites and 7 percent for blacks.

"I've definitely played by the rules," Wilder says.

He's not desperate enough to break the law, but "I see why people become drug dealers."

___

Horace Davis did become a drug dealer. He illustrates another dimension of the recession's impact on blacks: While law-abiding folks are falling out of the middle class, those who got in trouble with the law are further than ever from a second chance.

After serving four years for drug trafficking, Davis walked out of prison into the middle of the recession in 2008. "I thought to myself, I'm older, I need to get a job, move on. The dope game was dead to me," Davis says, sitting on a concrete porch in an Asheville, N.C., housing project.

In the past few decades of the "War on Drugs," harsh drug sentencing laws have sent a disproportionate number of black people to prison, even though blacks are not more likely than whites to sell or use drugs, according to a 2008 report by the Sentencing Project. Today, about 280,000 African-Americans exit prison each year. They are often the last of the last to be hired.

After Davis got out, he spent months applying for dozens of jobs mopping floors or flipping burgers. He carried a letter from the state offering a $2,500 tax credit for hiring ex-offenders. He got one call back, from a chicken restaurant. "We'll be in touch," Davis remembers them saying. They weren't.

"Nobody wants black felons in their businesses," says Davis, 26.

A 2003 University of Chicago study by Devah Pager sent young white and black "testers" to apply for real low-wage jobs. Some of the testers were randomly assigned felony convictions. The study found that whites with felonies were slightly more likely to get callbacks than black applicants without criminal records.

"The penalty of a criminal record is more disabling for black job seekers than whites," Pager and other researchers wrote in a follow-up study in 2009.

Davis says he learned skills in prison: "How to cook, clean, horticulture, janitorial. I can do it. I've been trained. Tile, carpentry, mortar, edging and trimming, all that. I can operate a backhoe, a roller. Any opportunity to do something that would show my talents, I'd do it. It would be my ticket out the streets.

"I just need someone to give me that chance. A nice construction job, anything. I would hold onto that until I die."

Some economists say the real black unemployment rate is as high as 25 or 30 percent, because government figures don't count "discouraged" workers who have stopped looking for jobs and dropped out of the labor force.

Davis now falls into that category — partly due to societal forces and partly, he knows, because of his own bad decisions.

Recently, police said they caught Davis with a half-ounce of marijuana. His trial date is approaching. As a habitual felon, he could get a 10-year sentence.

___

Some see a bitter irony in soaring black unemployment and the decline of the black middle class on the watch of the first black president.

"I thought Barack Obama could have provided some way out. But he lacks backbone," Princeton professor Cornel West told truthdig.com recently.

He said Obama had sold out the poor and become "a black mascot of Wall Street oligarchs and a black puppet of corporate plutocrats ... I don't think in good conscience I could tell anybody to vote for Obama."

Yet many jobless blacks do not blame their plight on the president.

"I have no problem with Obama when I look at what the alternatives are," Wilder says.

Goldring doesn't think Obama is doing a bad job either. "The unemployment situation is not the best, but I don't think it has a lot to do with him," she says. "Fixing this economy, it's going to take time.

Wiley, the Center for Social Inclusion director, says Obama should be applauded for several initiatives that have helped the black middle class, such as programs to modify certain mortgages and forestall foreclosure due to job loss.

She would have liked Obama to aggressively counter the suggestion that first black president would be showing favoritism if he specifically helped black people.

"It's the right thing to do for the nation," she says. "Black people are a huge segment of the population, they're especially hard-hit, and the country cannot recover if the black community — as well as the white community and others — does not recover."

___

Black homeownership hit an all-time high in 2004, with 50 percent of African-Americans owning their homes, according to census data.

Today, the black homeownership rate is 45 percent, compared with 74 percent for whites. Nearly 8 percent of African-Americans who bought homes from 2005-2008 have lost them to foreclosure, compared with 4.5 percent of whites, according to an estimate by the Center for Responsible Lending.

Goldring remembers that when she got a foreclosure notice from the bank, "I bawled."

Her son, Chris Fredericks, says she was "vulnerable, more than I have ever seen her, but she still kept moving."

He was incredulous that his mother was in such a position. "At any point, you can slip back. It's just the way the economy is going," he says. "Once you get into a spiral, there's no telling how far down you could go."

One day, at a counseling session on how to prevent foreclosure, Goldring learned about a new Maryland program that offered help to people who were behind on their mortgages due to layoffs or medical bills.

She thought it was too good to be true. It wasn't.

The Emergency Mortgage Assistance program, financed by federal money, offered a zero-interest loan of up to $50,000. The money would pay off up to a year of back mortgage payments, plus up to two years of regular payments. All Goldring had to do was pay 31 percent of her current gross income, or the full mortgage payment if she got a new job close to her original salary.

And so on a sweltering June day, Goldring stood before a podium in her freshly mulched back yard, flanked by a congressman, the mayor, the lieutenant governor, and other officials. The sound of chirping birds filled the air. Cameras rolled as the dignitaries told Goldring's story, using her as an example to spread word of the Emergency Mortgage Program to other struggling homeowners.

"I want to thank you for your courage," said the lieutenant governor, Anthony Brown.

"I know you did everything right," Brown said. "You worked hard, you saved diligently, but challenges never overtaking our will sometimes overtake our wallets."

Goldring stood in front of the microphone and exhaled.

"After this," she said, "the only good thing would be to be employed, once again."

___

Jesse Washington covers race and ethnicity for The Associated Press. He is reachable at www.twitter.com/jessewashington or jwashington(at)ap.org.


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2011/07/08

Analysis: Dismal job numbers give off recession whiff (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. job growth in June essentially ground to a halt for a second month running, suggesting a sharp first half slowdown is not merely a blip, as Wall Street economists and Federal Reserve officials had hoped.

The U.S. economy generated just 43,000 jobs in the last two months, perhaps taking the world's largest economy skating closer to recession territory.

It was difficult to find a bright spot in the U.S. Labor Department report. Many key labor market signals deteriorated, and the jobless rate rose unexpectedly to 9.2 percent even though the work force actually shrank.

Shaun Osborne, senior currency strategist at TD Securities, summed it up: "The number stinks." Watch for forecast revisions to second half U.S. gross domestic product.

Following are key details from the Labor Department figures, which could raise questions about whether the Fed should take additional actions to support growth:

** Average hours worked declined and earnings were essentially stagnant. That's a bad sign because employers often increase hours before taking on new workers.

** Manufacturing added a paltry 6,000 jobs and manufacturing hours worked declined noticeably to 40.3 in June from 40.6 in May.

** Construction employment fell for a second month, reflecting a housing sector that many economists have described as already being in a double-dip.

** The notion that the economy is suffering a temporary slowdown due to effects from Japan's earthquake and tsunami is becoming harder to sustain given the broad weakness seen in the report.

** Government employment has been steadily declining, falling for twelve of the last 13 months. State and local governments are under extreme budget pressures as their revenues are dented by a weak economy and heavy debt loads.

** Long-term unemployment statistics offer a particularly discouraging picture of the nation's job woes. Over 6 million Americans, or a record 45 percent of the jobless population, have been without a job for six months or longer.

** Temporary hiring fell by a sharp 12,000, suggesting a reluctance by employers to take on new workers even on a short-term basis. Economists often look to this measure as a

leading indicator on future permanent hiring.

(Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa)


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2011/07/05

Recession hits transit budgets despite rising need (AP)

BOSTON – Cash-strapped and debt-ridden, public transit systems across the nation are trimming service, raising fares and postponing badly needed upgrades just to maintain daily operations, even as rising gas prices increase demand and experts call modernization critical to cities' futures.

The economic downturn and cuts in government support have forced transit agencies to pare down, complicating the daily lives of commuters who depend on trains, trolleys and buses. Frustration comes easily.

"I can't rely on it at all," said Frank Summers, who has been commuting to Boston from suburban Ashland on commuter rail for about seven years and believes service is declining. "It's always jammed-packed and rarely on time."

The trains, operated by a company under contract with the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority — a network that includes the nation's oldest subway and is known to Bostonians simply as the T — were plagued by equipment problems during the past winter.

The fleet of 80 aging locomotives had, among other woes, trouble starting, keeping auxiliary power functioning for lighting systems and maintaining enough air pressure for braking systems, according to transit officials.

On one cold February night, a commuter train bound for Worcester broke down outside Boston, transforming passengers' usual 80-minute commute into a four-hour nightmare.

The T bought two new commuter rail locomotives this year — the first new ones in 20 years — and is pledging to continue efforts to modernize the line. But financial struggles are hardly unique to Boston or other big cities, and are reflective of the vast majority of transit systems large and small.

By one survey, more than 80 percent of U.S. transit systems had cut service, raised fares or both since the economic downturn started. The Federal Transit Administration has pointed to tens of billions of dollars in deferred maintenance nationwide, a problem particularly acute for older urban systems.

William Millar, president of the Association of Public Transportation Agencies, said that there are signs of financial improvement, but that it's not enough to make up for the needs.

"We still have a significant majority of systems that are still running unfunded deficits, that are still going to have to consider further fare increases and further service cuts, though they certainly don't want to do those things," he said.

Especially when ridership is growing. In Boston, for example, May was the busiest month on record for the T's subway system, and overall ridership is up more than 5 percent from a year ago.

"Almost universally, across the political spectrum, people are saying rising gas prices are making them nervous, that they really want to have more and better transit options," said David Goldberg, communications director for Transportation for America, a coalition representing the interests of transit users.

More riders represent a mixed bag for operators. Fare revenue goes up, of course, but the gains can easily be offset by the higher fuel costs that systems must incur.

An influx of riders also might generate greater political support for mass transit, but the added strain on aging and overtaxed equipment could frustrate commuters and leave them ready to return to their cars when gas prices ease.

A 2009 FTA study that examined the "state of good repair" of the nation's seven largest rail transit agencies — New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Chicago, San Francisco and the New Jersey Transit System — found anything but good repair.

The report found that 35 percent of all rail assets of those agencies were in subpar condition. Another 35 percent were deemed adequate and only 30 percent were in good or excellent condition. Upgrades would cost the seven largest systems $50 billion, the agency estimated.

Add in the rest of the country's public transit systems, and the maintenance backlog mushrooms to $78 billion.

Millar's group surveyed its 1,500 agencies and found that at least 40 percent were delaying capital improvements.

"The problem is to try to keep fares to a reasonable level, to try to keep services at a reasonable level, they have had to let some maintenance practices slip," he said. "Of course they are concerned about safety, so they try hard not to defer anything of a major safety need."

It's not just the major systems that are being forced to scrimp.

The Transit Authority of River City, which provides bus service for five counties in the greater Louisville, Ky., region, laid off 42 operators and mechanics last year and 10 administrative employees the previous year.

The authority's executive director, J. Barry Barker, said the system also was forced to reduce service and raise fares by $1 to $2.50 for express buses. Preventing further cuts or steeper fare hikes has meant sacrificing some improvements.

"The feds have a guideline that you can replace a full-size, 40-foot bus every 12 years. Basically I don't know anybody in the business who is replacing them after 12 years, and it's typically 14-16 (years)," he said.

Over the past several years, the authority has purchased only about half the replacement buses needed to meet even the longer cycle.

Federal support for mass transit comes largely in the form of the gasoline tax, with 2.86 cents per gallon of the federal tax earmarked for transit. But revenue has been declining as fewer Americans drive and many who do have switched to more fuel-efficient vehicles.

Federal funding also has strings attached.

Transit systems in larger cities can apply it only toward capital improvements, while systems in areas with populations of 200,000 or less can use federal money to pay operating expenses. Federal stimulus money, now ending, provided a short-term boost with 1,072 grants worth $8.8 billion for special transit projects. That included the purchase of new buses and rail cars, according to the Federal Transit Administration.

Going to the ballot box has become a popular tool for systems trying to raise revenue, and voters have generally seemed receptive.

In 2010, voters nationwide approved 73 percent of transportation-related ballot questions, many calling for increases in sales or property taxes.

St. Joseph, Mo., boasts of having one the nation's oldest public transit systems, dating to when horses pulled large coaches before the Civil War. But with revenue falling and costs increasing for fuel, health insurance and liability coverage, the system had to go to local voters for a one-quarter cent sales tax increase in 2008 to avoid shutting down some of its eight bus routes.

But it may be only a temporary patch.

"We raised our sales tax, but the people haven't been buying as much stuff. It's not producing the revenue we would have hoped," said Andrew Clements, assistant director for St. Joseph public works. "As the future looms, eight to 10 years from now, we may be looking at a much harder challenge."

The public transit system serving Grand Rapids, Mich., won voter approval of property tax measures in 2000, 2003 and 2007 — allowing it to expand from 63 buses in 1999 to 105 buses this year at peak hours and more than double its ridership, said Peter Varga, chief executive officer of The Rapid.

The agency hasn't run a deficit in a decade, nor has it increased fares or cut service, he said, even as Michigan's economy has tanked.

The financial crunch has prompted creative approaches to generate additional money for transit systems.

To help close a projected $127 million operating deficit, the Boston-area system adopted a plan to sell bonds secured by future parking revenue at nearly 100 lots and garages. Proceeds from the bond would also be used to pay off future debt. The agency also hoped to sell more advertising space at stations and on trains and buses, and move its unionized employees to a more flexible state-run health insurance plan.

Passengers no longer will get a free ride if their bus or train is more than a half-hour late, but fare hikes, for now at least, are off the table.

Historically, fares have accounted for 30 percent to 40 percent of total transit revenue nationwide.

Experts who point to more modern and reliable systems around the world say U.S. cities must find ways to overcome financial hurdles and invest in public transit.

In Los Angeles, voters agreed in 2008 to pay a half-cent sales tax over the next 30 years to fund a massive expansion of public transportation. But Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa doesn't want to wait that long for the projects to be completed, so he's proposed borrowing billions from the federal government so the work can be done in just a decade.

"It's becoming clear that (cities) have to remain healthy and vital, and it's also becoming increasingly clear that a functioning transit system is a big part of that," said Robert Puentes, a transportation expert with the Brookings Institution.

___

Associated Press writers David Lieb in Jefferson City, Mo., and Russell Contreras in Boston contributed to this report.


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